Fed, US shutdown threat spoil holiday mood

Fed, US shutdown threat spoil holiday mood

Recap: World stocks extended a steep sell-off yesterday as the threat of a US government shutdown and further increases in US borrowing costs compounded investor anxiety over the trajectory of global economic growth.

The SET index moved in the range of 1,578.64 and 1,615.63 points before closing at 1,595.33, down 0.9% from the previous week, in moderate turnover averaging 42.9 billion baht a day.

Retail investors were net buyers of 3.3 billion baht and foreign investors bought 170.8 million. Institutional investors were net sellers of 3.3 billion baht and brokerages unloaded 142.6 million worth of shares.

Newsmakers: The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to between 2.25% and 2.5%, asserting its independence despite repeated attacks by President Donald Trump, but it also sent a clear signal it expects to slow the pace next year in the face of plateauing growth.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned that no one can "dictate" China's economic development path as the Communist Party marked 40 years of its historic "reform and opening up" policy amid a stern challenge from the US.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has warned MPs against supporting a second Brexit referendum, as calls mount for a public vote to break the political impasse over the deal she struck with the EU.

European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici says he is working to avoid Italy being sanctioned over its 2019 budget, reiterating that Rome and Paris were not being held to two different standards.

France plans to introduce its own tax on big technology firms from Jan 1 after EU-wide efforts stalled. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said he expected the tax to bring in €500 million in 2019.

Malaysia has filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs and two of the US bank's former employees in connection with corruption and money laundering at the state fund 1MDB.

The Bank of Thailand joined the global rate hike trend by lifting its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points for the first time since 2011, aiming to ward off risks that can endanger financial stability. But it reiterated that continuity in tightening policy is unnecessary.

Thailand's higher policy interest rate is poised to be a boon to the banking sector as net interest margins increase, but the move could take a toll on auto lending firms because of their fixed rate charges, say analysts.

TMB Bank has received multiple merger and acquisition offers from institutions including Thanachart Bank (TBank) and Krungthai Bank (KTB), says Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong.

The Government Pension Fund plans to adjust its strategy to reduce its equity portfolio amid projections of higher financial volatility, opting to increase investment in low-risk assets, especially domestic fixed-income securities.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is conducting a public hearing about relaxing regulations on pre-sales and private sales of initial coin offerings (ICOs), aiming to reduce impediments for ICO issuers raising funds.

Business confidence recovered in November after a fall in October, when executives and business owners fretted about the impact of a trade war on the Thai economy, a drop in Chinese tourist arrivals and low oil palm and rubber prices.

The value of Thai exports could drop next year by up to US$4.4 billion, or about 2%, if the US-China trade war intensifies, says a study by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Energy policymakers plan to cap power tariff at 3.576 baht per kilowatt-hour (unit) under a revised 20-year national power development plan, says Kulit Sombatsiri, permanent secretary of the Energy Ministry.

The Industry Ministry will ask local steelmakers to help chart a 5- to 10-year roadmap for the development of the industry to serve new industries in the Eastern Economic Corridor.

Bangkok has joined the list of the 100 most expensive cities for expatriate workers for the first time because of the strong baht, economic growth and more stable politics, based on cost of living surveys by ECA International.

The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) predicts international arrivals will increase to 40.3 million in 2019, mainly due to lowered visa barriers.

SET-listed Glow Energy Plc has confirmed that several investor groups are keen to acquire the majority stake held Engie SA of France in the company.

SET-listed Singha Estate Plc (S), the property development arm of the Boonrawd Brewery Group, will invest 17 billion baht to both develop and acquire four commercial projects between 2019 and 2023 to increase revenue from recurring income to 50% from 30% of its total.

PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) has announced a five-year investment plan for 2019-23 add value through exploration and production activity and support investment opportunities domestically and overseas.

SET-listed Gulf Energy Development Plc (GULF) has denied widespread reports that it is interested in acquiring Glow Energy Plc and Wind Energy Holding.

SET-listed TPI Polene Power Plc (TPIPP), the country's largest waste-to-energy power generator, expects to increase the utilisation rate of its power plants by 10% in 2019.

Coming up: The Bank of Japan governor will give a speech to the Keidanren, known as the Japan Federation of Economic Organisations, on Wednesday. The US will release December consumer confidence on Thursday.

Germany will announce December preliminary inflation data on Friday and the US will release November trade figures the same day.

Stocks to watch: SCB Securities recommends a medium to long-term strategy, accumulating stocks with good fundamentals when prices are weak. Top picks for the first quarter of 2019 are WHA, ROJNA, BBL, KTB, CPF and TU, all of which have fundamental support from the investment cycle and rising interest rates.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand recommends BEM as its expressway concession has been extended for another 37 years beyond 2020. It also likes MTC due to strong growth from branch expansion.

Technical view: Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,584 points and resistance at 1,615. DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,560 and resistance at 1,630.

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