The Thai economy will grow by only 4% this year, as the government's 2-trillion-baht infrastructure development plan is unlikely to play a significant role in boosting growth this year, says Bangkok Bank (BBL).
"BBL foresees a 4% economic growth rate this year, down from an earlier projection of 5%, as exports will likely remain sluggish and major infrastructure projects delayed," said executive chairman Kosit Panpiemras.
Gross domestic product expanded by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, missing BBL's 6-7% growth projection, due mainly to the bearish export performance.
That marked a sharp decline from last year's fourth quarter, when economic growth hit a record high of 19.1% year-on-year due to a low base from the flood-hit period in 2011.
For this year's first quarter, export growth was relatively low at 4.5% compared with the 9% target set by the Commerce Ministry.
Mr Kosit said the economy in the second half of this year will rely mainly on domestic demand and external factors.
He expects the 350-billion-baht water management projects to start in the fourth quarter, too late to contribute substantially to this year's economic growth figures.
Chula Sukmanop, director of the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy Planning, said only 1 billion of the 2 trillion baht earmarked for infrastructure projects is expected to be disbursed this year, as the bill to borrow such a budget may not be passed by parliament until September.
Disbursements for some rail projects are expected in the fourth quarter, he said.
The government recently completed public hearings in Phitsanulok, Ayutthaya and Nakhon Sawan provinces on the first phase of the high-speed railway that will link Bangkok and Phitsanulok.
The government is in the process of deciding the project's routes and stations.
Mr Chula said most people participating in the public hearings had a favourable opinion.
Mr Chula said the government remains committed to proceeding with the bids for a technical company for the high-speed trains in the third quarter, with construction bidding scheduled next year.
Thailand plans to build four high-speed train lines _ Bangkok-Phitsanulok-Chiang Mai to the North, Bangkok-Hua Hin-Padang Besar on the Malaysian border to the South, Bangkok-Pattaya-Rayong to the East and Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima-Nong Khai to the Northeast.
The four routes are part of the government's 2-trillion-baht investment plan to improve the country's transport and logistics infrastructure.
Construction of the first phase of the four routes _ Bangkok-Phitsanulok, Bangkok-Hua Hin, Bangkok-Rayong and Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima _ is expected to be completed by 2019.
The high-speed projects will be built in phases, with only the Rayong-Pattaya route likely to be constructed in one stage.
Areepong Bhoocha-oom, the finance permanent secretary, last week said his ministry had appointed the Boston Consulting Group as an adviser to conduct a viability study.
Investment may not be worthwhile if only revenue from the fare rates set by the government is taken into account, but it could still be worthwhile if returns to the overall economy are considered.