The government expects exports to grow by about 5% next year but the expansion may fall to only 3% if political rallies turn violent.
Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Bunsongphaisan admitted yesterday that the country should end up this year with export growth of only 1% to US$231.57 billion.
That is far below the ministry's original forecast of 7-8% growth.
Mr Niwatthamrong was speaking after a joint meeting with members of the Federation of Thai Industries, Thai Chamber of Commerce and Thai Bankers' Association.
He blamed the poor export performance on the economic slowdown in key importing countries and a drop in several export products, particularly shrimp, sugar, stationery, frozen poultry, garments and textiles, rubber, construction materials, electronics and rice.
"It's fortunate if shipments still manage growth of 1% this year, as we've found several countries such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines also reporting an export drop," said Mr Niwatthamrong.
He said the 5% export growth forecast for next year was based on an anticipated economic recovery in key export markets, with cars, rice, rubber, tapioca and sugar expected to see outstanding growth.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thailand should end this year with export growth of only 1.3%, the lowest figure since 2010.
Mr Aat agreed exports are set to grow by 4-5% next year on the global economic recovery and renewed demand for industrial goods, but he warned growth could be only 3% if political demonstrations turn violent, leading the private sector to halt expansion.
He urged the government to set up an intelligence warning system to monitor export performance every 3-6 months so that exporters could adjust operations to changing trade circumstances.
"Export growth this year is expected to be slightly over 1%," he said. "But the political problem still exists and is far from easy to end. This may affect investors' confidence, possibly prompting investors to shift their investment into Vietnam and Indonesia."