Confidence in the overall economy among surveyed economists was at its lowest level in three-and-a-half years in January and was expected to fall further over the next three months, Bangkok Poll reported on Tuesday.
The research centre at Bangkok University, or Bangkok Poll, reported the results of a survey on confidence in Thai economy, interviewing 60 economists at 32 leading organisations between Jan 8 and 17.
The pollster reported that the economists' confidence index plummeted from 36.99 in the previous survey in October 2013 to 17.85 in January, the lowest level in the three-and-a-half years this index has been in use.
The confidence index for the next three months fell from 59.12 reported in October 2013 to 39.56 in January, according to Bangkok Poll.
The economists' confidence index remaining below the 50 level showed a severely weak confidence in the Thai economy, it said.
The confidence index for the next six months also dropped, from 71.69 in October 2013 to 56.07 in January. However, the index stayed above 50 level, reflecting that the economists had confidence that the economy would rebound in the future.
Positive factors that would help mobilise the economy over the next six months included exports, tourism, private consumption and private investment. The delays in the government’s investment in mega development projects would remain a negative factor to derail economic recovery over the period.
Asked at what stage of the economic circle they thought the economy was at in January, 2% of the respondents said at growth peak, 67% of them said recession, 5% of said s trough, 10% said recovery and 16% were unsure.
In conclusion, the Bangkok Poll said, the polled economists believed the current economy is severely weak and would get worse over the next three months.
They thought the economy over the next six months would improve, boosted by the export sector. Meanwhile government spending and investment would still be negative factors to obstruct economic recovery, it added