Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2014 is likely to languish below 3% if anti-government protests are prolonged into the second quarter of the year, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) warned on Tuesday.
Ath Pisalvanich, director of the UTCC's International Trade Studies Centre, said ongoing political turmoil is affecting the business sector, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs) competing in markets in Asean member countries.
Orders placed with SMEs are declining, while clients are buying goods from other countries because Thai manufacturers can no longer set exact delivery dates for customers due to the continuing political conflict, he said.
The situation is expected to worsen if protests are prolonged because trade partners will lose confidence in doing business with Thailand, he said.
There could also be problems with signing trade agreements with Asean members if the rallies go on, which would weaken the trade competitiveness of Thai manufacturers, Mr Ath warned, arguing that Thailand’s competitiveness in the Asean region would likely drop from third ranked in 2013 to fifth, behind Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.
He projected that GDP growth for 2014 would stand at 3% with export expansion at 3.8%, on the condition that anti-government rallies end in the first quarter of the year.
Pupils walk past a protest site in Bangkok. Unicef Thailand has expressed "extreme concern" about the number of pupils whose education has been disrupted by rallies. (Photo by Thanarak Khoonton)
The caretaker government meanwhile announced that more than 900 schools have been forced to close temporarily due to anti-government protests, though all have now re-opened to pupils.
Caretaker Education Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng said a total of 934 schools with 316,982 students and 18,164 teachers have been affected by the protests so far. All 934 schools are supervised by the Education Ministry.
Mr Chaturon said all the schools have already re-opened, but many pupils missed several days of lessons so the Education Ministry and related agencies are working to provide supplementary classes to help children make up for missed time.
Prolonged protests could seriously damage the educational prospects of children and the country's future, he said.
Children's charity Unicef Thailand issued a statement expressing "extreme concern" about the number of pupils whose education has been disrupted by the ongoing political crisis.
The statement urged all parties involved to respect children's right to receive an education and to make every effort to ensure that schools remain open.