2014 revenue could miss target

2014 revenue could miss target

Government revenue for fiscal 2014 could fall below target as a result of the ongoing political uncertainty, says Chakkrit Parapuntakul, the deputy permanent secretary for finance.

If revenue misses the target, even as spending continues as normal, the government may have to tap the country's treasury accounts to help finance the shortfall. As of February, the Finance Ministry had 236 billion baht in its treasury accounts.

The fiscal 2014 budget, which runs through September, puts revenue at 2.275 trillion baht against spending of 2.525 trillion. Some 83% of government revenue comes from the three main tax agencies: the Revenue Department, the Customs Department and the Excise Department.

Mr Chakkrit said the extent of any budget shortfall would depend on the political and economic situation in the coming months.

"For the past several years, the government has consistently exceeded its revenue targets," he said. "But this year will be an aberration, given that the protracted political problems show no end in sight.

"Exports, which account for as much as 70% of gross domestic product, also look to miss targets."

Consumer sentiment and business confidence have fallen sharply in recent months as a result of the ongoing political deadlock. A new government has yet to take shape in the midst of legal challenges and continued protest rallies in Bangkok.

Revenue for the first five months of fiscal 2014 through February stood at 802 billion baht after transfers to local administrations and tax refunds to businesses.

Net revenue was 0.6% short of target and 3% below the amount collected in the year-earlier period. Tax collection by the three main agencies fell 4.6% short of target and 2.5% below year-earlier levels.

In the 12 fiscal years from 2002 to 2013, only three saw revenue come in below target.

The first was 2006, the year the Thaksin Shinawatra government was overthrown in a military coup, followed by 2009 during the global economic crisis and 2012 after the worst flooding in decades.

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