Thailand has managed to turn back the clock by a decade and is about to restart its entire political process, which could derail the country’s standing on the global and regional stage, as a result of an impulsive move by a short-tempered general.
Yes, the country is in the global headlines once again, this time for something that has become taboo in most of the modern world. When we read of a military coup these days, usually it is only in the worst sort of failed state.
There are those who have been seeking to justify the drastic action taken by soon-to-retire army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha. The incorrigible behaviour of political hotheads on both sides of the national debate is certainly one. But think about the context before reaching such a conclusion.
Gen Prayuth had sought a three-hour meeting on May 21, just a day after he imposed martial law, and gave the disputing parties a day to come to a conclusion. The May 22 meeting lasted less than two hours before the coup was declared.
What kind of miracle did the general expect to achieve in five hours of discussion? People had been out on the streets for more than six months and discord had been festering for eight years ever since the anti-Thaksin movement started.
Any kind of negotiation between warring factions takes time. A person trying to fix a decade-old problem in five hours would only be daydreaming.
The military’s decision to take control has helped to some degree, in that it has got the protesters off the streets, although one side may think it is victorious, as its second-tier leaders have stated.
Many think the end of the protests in itself is something that will help Thailand move forward. But the fact is that guns are not likely to silence a movement that feels its members have been taken advantage of. That anger could well be given fresh expression in a few months in ways more dramatic and violent than in 2010.
All this does not sound very hopeful for Thailand at a time when its neighbours are all moving ahead. It is sad indeed when Myanmar, for decades an economic basket case under a military junta, is expressing concern, as an emerging democracy, about the affairs of its neighbour.
Thailand is the second-largest economy of the 10-member Asean group and has been a leader in the drive to create the Asean Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015. Members still have many tasks they need to complete to ensure that Asean can be a truly integrated economy that promotes free movement of goods, services and skilled labour. Having a functioning government that can get these things done is essential.
Those aspirations as of today look far harder to achieve after a coup. Thailand is likely to face many challenges from the international community, be it sanctions, withdrawal of funds and the possible delay in investments from abroad. Washington has already weighed in with strong words of condemnation and military cooperation in the near term looks doubtful.
Thailand has long been one of the centres for investors looking to tap into the important Southeast Asian market in sectors such as automobiles, electronic components or logistics. But that reputation could go out the window after the coup despite the assurances from coup leaders that things will proceed as planned.
The country’s sovereign credit ratings as well are likely to be downgraded. Private talks with some ratings agencies indicated that they were looking to bring down Thailand’s ratings by a notch even before the coup took place.
To make matters worse, we can expect a knee-jerk reaction from abroad to hammer the tourism industry. Expect numerous travel warnings and advisories, some justified and others not so much, as well as cancellations of flights as tourists stay away because they don’t know whether it’s safe to visit.
This is not going to bode well for an economy that has already been reeling from months of street protests.
As for the formation of the AEC, which is already a year behind schedule, Asean decision-makers might have to take another look at the prospects if one of the key players lacks a functioning government. As long as ambiguity remains about the future of democracy, with no election in sight, a lot of other dominoes could fall.
What is needed for Thailand is for the new regime, whoever is in charge, to make the path to the future clear as soon as possible because. There is no time to waste if Thailand wants to remain a meaningful player in the economy of Southeast Asia.