Exports picked up for the first time in four months in June, driven mainly by higher farm shipments.
The Commerce Ministry released exact June trade data yesterday showing the first year-on-year increase since February to US$19.8 billion, a rise of 3.9% from $19.1 billion in June 2013.
However, the actual figures were lower than the 7.33% year-on-year growth prediction of more than $20 billion in trade made last Friday by commerce permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara.
The figures coincided with slow 2014 growth projections by several economists on the back of weak exports even though months of political unrest did not disrupt factories or ports.
Shipments contracted by 1.98% year-on-year in January before increasing 2.43% in February. They slumped again in March, by 3.12% year-on-year, then 0.87% in April and 2.14% in May.
Farm and agribusiness products inched up for the first time in five months in June, increasing by 2.6% year-on-year to $2.92 billion.
Exports of industrial products gained 3.9% from June 2013 to $13.1 billion, led by gems and jewellery, garments, plastic pellets and products, electronics, electrical appliances, construction materials, and vehicles and parts.
Imports decreased by 14% year-on-year to $18 billion due mainly to lower imports of fuel.
For the first six months, the country's overall shipments still fell, down by 0.35% to $113 billion. Imports for the period fell 14% to $112 billion.
Nuntawan Sakuntanaga, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said exports to several major export destinations rose last month, with those to the US increasing by 11%, Europe 15% and Asean 2%.
However, shipments to China remained in the red the first six months, down by 4% year-on-year.
"Thai exports should see good growth in the second half thanks to the recovering economies of the US and EU," Ms Nuntawan said. "The performance in the Asean market also becomes promising, especially for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States."
Despite the contraction in the first five months, the ministry is sticking to its export growth forecast of 3.5% for the full year to $237 billion.
Ms Nuntawan said Thailand must closely monitor fluctuations on the recovery pace of the world's economy and key trading partners and other factors such as prices of crude oil, rubber and sugar.
Sompop Manarungsan, president of the Panyapiwat Institute of Technology, said the 3.9% growth for Thai exports in June was relatively low compared with China's expansion by 7.2% in the same month.
A second-half rebound remains uncertain, given the global economic volatility and international conflicts.
"The one bright spot is if China's exports and imports see double-digit growth this year, that should have a knock-on effect and cause Thailand's exports to grow," said Mr Sompop.