Sugar-cane output from the Northeast this season is likely to fail to reach the projected 100 tonnes due to climate change, says the North Eastern Cane Planters' Association.
Chairman Teerachai Sankaew said cane output from the region from last year's crop ending in November was 103 tonnes.
But the central and northeastern regions are facing severe drought due to climate change, resulting in lower output, he said.
Planters are also dealing with low sugar prices due to a glut of global output.
Mr Teerachai said global oversupply was expected to keep weighing on prices in the 2014-15 season, as capacity remained from new factories.
"We forecast the sugar-cane price in 2014-15 will decline to 850 baht a tonne from 900 baht last year," said Mr Teerachai.
"But production costs are at 1,000 baht a tonne, so it's a difficult time for us."
He said planters had prepared to seek financial aid from the military-installed government such as a sugar-price subsidy similar to that provided by the previous Yingluck Shinawatra government, which borrowed 16 billion baht from the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to fund the scheme.
A senior Industry Ministry official said the state Cane and Sugar Fund now annual had revenue of 12 billion baht after levying five baht a kilogramme on refined sugar on top of the freight-on-board price.
However, the fund must repay a debt of 8 billion baht to the BAAC for the previous subsidy.
The fund has borrowed a total of 16 billion baht for previous seasons and gradually repaid until the figure was reduced to to 8 billion, which is due to be repaid by October 2015, said a source who declined to be named.
The fund is established and governed by the Industry Ministry in order to assist planters by subsidising cane prices.
"The cane planters will require a budget of 16 billion baht for this harvest, as it has to support planters at 160 baht per tonne," said the official.
The source said the fund would need to seek new borrowing of 16 billion baht next February.
Once it obtains the new loan, the net debt will stand at 24 billion baht.