Recap: Global bourses, especially in the US and Europe, rebounded as investors hoped for more European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus. However, activity in Thailand was muted as concerns over the health of the domestic economy mounted.
The SET index moved in a narrow range of 1,520.89 and 1,542.60 points and closed at 1,539.91, down 0.7% on the week, on modest average daily turnover of 37.92 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 3.04 billion baht and brokers sold 370.42 million more than they bought. Institutions were net buyers of 2.67 billion baht and retail investors 737.17 million.
Big movers: Top gainer ACD jumped 124% to 7.70 baht and top loser HMPRO fell 10.8% after going XD. IEC led in volume, up 50% to 0.06 baht. The top three by value were KBANK, adding 5.4% to 235 baht; ADVANC, gaining 1.8% to 228 baht; and TRUE, falling 2.7% to 10.80 baht.
Newsmakers: China's economy in the third quarter grew 7.3%, its slowest pace in five years and risks missing its official target at 7.5% for the first time in 15 years, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy is becoming a drag on global growth.
The ECB reportedly is preparing to decide by December whether to buy corporate bonds on the secondary market starting early next year. That would expand the asset-buying programme it began last week with the aim of spurring the economy and fending off deflation, which has already gripped five of the 18 euro zone members.
Concerns about the health of the euro zone eased slightly on news that Greece's Alpha Bank had passed ECB stress tests, and Germany's October Manufacturing flash PMI improved to 51.8 versus an expectation of 49.5.
Airports of Thailand Plc forecasts inbound air passengers will total 50.95 million this high season, between October and March, up 10.6% from the same period a year earlier, due mainly to increased scheduled flights. Total flight movements at Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai, Hat Yai, Phuket and Chiang Rai for the period will be 337,500.
Myanmar and Thailand next month are expected to announce concrete plans to develop the initial phase of the long-delayed Dawei development project.
The National Energy Policy Committee has a new round of bidding for petroleum concessions. Of the 29 blocks up for auction, six are offshore in the Gulf of Thailand and 23 onshore, mostly in the Northeast. The government believes the blocks will allow explorers to tap an estimated volume of 1 trillion to 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 20-50 million barrels of crude oil, which would bring in at least 5 billion baht in investment in the next 3-5 years.
The automotive industry remains weak, with production, domestic sales and exports all falling last month. The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said output fell 15.6% year-on-year in September to 164,299 vehicles. Domestic sales fell by 27.5% to 68,843 vehicles due to the economic slowdown, lower farm prices and stricter loan criteria.
The 11 SET-listed banks set aside loan-loss provisions of 60.64 billion baht as of September, rising 11.14% from the end of 2013. This reflects anticipation of higher NPLs, which jumped 10.7% from the end of last year to 309.09 billion in the first nine months. The NPL ratio rose to 3.1% of credit outstanding from 2.7%.
Siam Cement has set a five-year investment budget of 200-250 billion baht, not including mergers and acquisitions, starting next year. It will focus on greenfield projects related to core businesses rather than M&As. This includes a petrochemical project in Vietnam, with financial costs and other details to be settled in the next quarter.
Krung Thai Bank (KTB) has injected 900 million baht into KTB Leasing to support loan expansion and reduce the unit's dependence on borrowing. KTB Leasing now has registered capital of 1 billion baht.
The solar power developer SPCG Plc plans to increase capacity by 15.4% from 260 megawatts to 300 MW by year-end, with a further rise to 500 MW by 2019 to tap Asan demand.
The Commerce Ministry expects 2015 exports to rise at least 5% amid recovering global growth.
IRPC Plc, the petrochemical arm of PTT Plc, is confident that the current loss in value of its oil stock following the oil price slump will have a marginal impact on performance.
The mobile operator DTAC aims to double mobile data users within two years thanks to a rapid transition from 3G to 4G mobile services. A six-month content partnership with Facebook and a Happy Connection package are expected to help sales.
The management of SET-listed General Engineering is turning around the concrete materials maker after years of losses, says chief executive Thitipong Tangpoonphonvivat.
Banpu Plc plans to increase coal sales to 50 million tonnes next year from an estimated 48.5 million this year. It expects lignite selling prices to remain at about $70 a tonne
Coming up this week: The latest US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures are due tomorrow, along with updated European Commission economic forecasts.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet tomorrow and Wednesday with an announcement due around 2am Thursday Thailand time. The market will watch for clues on the policy rate after asset purchases are ended this month.
Thai Solar Energy (TSE) will make its trading debut on the MAI.
The preliminary US third-quarter GDP reading is set to be released on Thursday. Economists expect to see an improvement in growth to 3%, compared with 1.2% in the first half.
The Bank of Thailand will release its monthly economic report for September on Friday. The Bank of Japan will meet the same day.
Non-bank Thai listed companies' third-quarter earnings season starts this week led by PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) and Siam Cement (SCC).
Stocks to watch: Phillip Securities suggests selective earnings plays including ASP, MBKET, CPF, KCE, SVI, SF, SYNTEC, AP, PS, BGH, BH and TTA. AEC Securities is overweight on banking with KBANK and KTB its top picks. The brokerage is also bullish on GUNKUL and DEMCO as both are expected to benefit from a new round of bidding for 1,445MW in new solar generating capacity.
Technical view: Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,526 and 1,520 and resistance at 1,542 and 1,546. Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,525 and 1,510 and resistance at 1,547.