Despite September’s rebound in exports, a major trade group still is predicting 2014 will see outbound shipments contract 0.4% due to a shaky global economy.
Despite September’s rebound in exports and official predictions of growth by the Commerce Ministry, the Thai National Shippers’ Council is predicting 2014 will see outbound shipments contract 0.4% due to a shaky global economy. (Bangkok Post photo)
The Thai National Shippers' Council downgraded its full-year forecast made last month that exports would grow 1% for the year. It also conflicts with an Oct 28 prediction from International Trade Promotion Department director-general Nuntawan Sakuntanaga that Thailand will finish the year with a trade surplus.
TNSC president Nopporn Thepsithar said the council lowered expectations based on global economic sentiment following the International Monetary Fund's cut in its growth projections to 3.3%, down from 3.4% due to concerns about the economies in the European Union and Japan.
And while the US economy remains on an upward trend, growth is coming much slower than expected, causing fluctuations in the capital and bond markets, he said.
Mr Nopporn said the Thai baht also was weaker than other currencies in the region, while Thai exporters have exhibited lower competitiveness. The council said that if there was no improvement in competitiveness, Thailand may lag behind Vietnam within the next five years.
The Commerce Ministry's International Trade Promotion Department reported Tuesday that Thailand shipped goods worth $19.9 billion last month, a solid bounce-back after exports plummeted 7.4% in August.
For the first nine months of this year, Thailand exported a total of $170.46 billion, down 0.85% from the same period in 2013. Imports during that period totalled $171.974 billion, a decrease of 10%. So far this year, the kingdom is running a trade deficit of $52 billion.
But Ms Nuntawan said her department expected an average of $19.5 billion to be shipped each month over the rest of the year, pushing exports to the plus side for the full-year.
For 2015, the shippers' council is projecting export growth of 2.5%.