PTT Plc, the national oil and gas conglomerate, expects global crude prices to fall below US$60 a barrel early next year.
Chief executive and president Pailin Chuchottaworn said indications came when Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, recently announced it could accept a price of $70 a barrel after signalling a target price of $80 a month earlier.
The Saudis have not considered the option of cutting output.
Mr Pailin said crude-producing countries that are not members of the Opec cartel have not only increased their production since last year, but have also discovered new resources of mainstream crude, natural gas and new-type shale gas.
Crude prices have dropped below $80 a barrel from above $105 in the past three months, reflecting the slow global recovery.
At the same time, Opec has decided to maintain its production capacity.
"I think there is a battle between Opec and non-Opec to grab the opportunity," Mr Pailin said.
For 2014, he expects a year-end average price of $80 a barrel.
"It's like the 2008 phenomenon when the global oil price was deeply diving from $147 a barrel to $35 within a month" during the financial crisis, Mr Pailin said.
The chief executive also discussed PTT's plan to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the amount of 3-4 million tonnes in 2015, up from 2 million tonnes this year.
This is in line with forecasts that the economy will improve next year.
After purchasing LNG from the spot market since 2011 to serve its first receiving terminal, PTT's first batch of 50,000 tonnes under a long-term purchasing contract with Qatar is due for delivery in January. The contract covers delivery of 2 million tonnes a year. The rest will be ordered from the spot market.
PTT is developing a second receiving terminal with similar capacity of 5 million tonnes a year, to go on stream in 2017.
A third terminal is under review for its feasibility. That project would be in Myanmar and handle a capacity of 5 million tonnes.
PTT shares on the Stock Exchange of Thailan closed last Friday at 387 baht, up three baht, in trade worth 1.2 billion baht.