Industrial output may shrink by 4% this year following a 5.1% decline from January to October while industrial gross domestic product could contract in a range between 1.5% and 2%.
For October, the index slipped by 2.9% year-on-year to 166.35, according to Udom Wongviwatchai, director of the Industrial Economic Office.
"The contraction was the result of the first-half political turmoil, a slower-than-expected world economic recovery and an economic slowdown of major trade partners, especially the euro zone and China" he said.
The industries which saw the largest declines were automobiles, expected to show a 20.64% full-year decline to 1.95 million units, refinery, which saw maintenance shutdowns, jewellery, as well as canned and frozen seafood," Mr Udom said.
The gainers were electronics, thanks to more demand for smartphones, tablets and digital TVs; air-conditioners, with more exports to key markets, and plastic pellets.
"With 10% of industrial GDP, the automobiles sector will be a major drag on the index this year. But we forecast industrial GDP and the index to grow by 2-3% and 3-4% respectively next year, based on the assumption the baht is at 32.8 baht to the dollar and oil prices at US$93 a barrel," he said.
Among the positive factors next year are economic recovery at home and abroad and improved investment while the negative factors are volatile foreign exchange rates and sluggish farm prices, which affect local purchasing power and consumption.