Rice exports from Thailand will hit a record level next year as sales from reserves and the end of a price-support programme help the country retain its position as the largest shipper, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
Farmers in Phrom Phiram district in Phitsanulok province bring in their harvest in September. The Food and Agriculture Organisation forecasts rice exports from the kingdom to surge next year. (Post Today photo).
Shipments surged 54% to 10.2 million tonnes this year, helping Thailand to replace India as the biggest exporter in 2014, the Rome-based agency said in a quarterly report on Thursday. In 2015, Thai shipments will gain further to 11 million tonnes even as local production drops, while India's shipments will probably contract to 8.2 million tonnes from 10 million tonnes this year, the United Nations' agency said.
The government halted a price-support programme in February that spurred the buildup of record stockpiles as exports fell, enabling India to become the largest supplier. The country's military, which took power in May, said that it would press on with sales from the holdings. Though dry weather has caused a water shortage that will cut the crop this season, Thai exports will keep on rising, the FAO said.
"A development dominating the international rice trade this year has been the resurgence of Thailand," it said, citing the end of the price-support programme and sales from public stockpiles. "The ensuing restoration of its competitive edge has permitted Thailand to recapture much of the market share lost to India and Vietnam over the past two years."
Shipments from Vietnam, the third-ranked exporter, were seen steady at 6.6 million tonnes this year, but will rise to 6.9 million tonnes in 2015, the agency forecast. Global exports rose to a record 40.2 million tonnes this year, and may climb to 40.5 million tonnes next year, it said.
"Thailand's market dominance is expected to be largely unrivalled" in export markets in 2015, the FAO said. "The buoyant outlook is in spite of the likely output reduction this season, as potential shortfalls will be checked by the still-large government rice inventories."
Global production is expected to drop 0.2% to 496.6 million tonnes on a milled basis in 2014-2015 as output in India falls because a weak monsoon delayed planting, the FAO said.
World inventories may decline 2.1% to 177.5 million tonnes as demand rises 1.9% to 500.5 million tonnes, it said. Stockpiles in Thailand may contract to 16.1 million tonnes in 2015 from a record 17.8 million tonnes this year, it said.
The new government won't buy crops directly from farmers as it spurred oversupply, Agriculture Minister Petipong Puengbun Na Ayudhya, said on Oct 1. Thailand is looking to sell 2 million tonnes to China for delivery in 2015-2016, Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya told reporters on Nov 14.