Thailand's shrimp industry is expected to recover next year now that the epidemic of early mortality syndrome (EMS) has eased.
Raisers have succeeded in adjusting their farming to curb the virus that ravaged Asia's booming shrimp industry over the past three years.
The Thai Shrimp Association (TSA) yesterday forecast Thai shrimp production would recover to between 250,000 and 300,000 tonnes in 2015, with exports of 180,000 to 200,000 tonnes worth 75-80 billion baht.
"Prices are likely to remain stable next year, as global demand for shrimp is large," president Somsak Paneetatyasai said yesterday.
But he said the shrimp industry was expected to end this year with production of only 230,000 tonnes due to EMS, with exports of only 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes worth about 60 billion baht.
In the first 10 months of this year, Thailand exported 130,000 tonnes, down by 26% year-on-year, valued at 51 billion baht, down by 8%.
EMS was first detected on a shrimp farm in China in 2009, then moved through Vietnam before spreading to Thailand in mid-2012.
The outbreak has severely damaged the Thai shrimp industry and exports of related products.
Before the disease, Thailand produced 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of shrimp annually.
Mr Somsak said Thailand would have to monitor the situation following termination of EU tax privileges under the Generalised System of Preferences this coming Jan 1.
From that date, the EU tariff on Thai shrimp will triple to 12%, weakening Thailand's shrimp competitiveness, he said.
To ease the impact, the TSA is urging the government to accelerate free trade talks with the EU and tackle the human trafficking issue.
"We've explained that the shrimp industry has nothing to do with forced or child labour, as shrimp production is farm-based," Mr Somsak said.
"Nonetheless, the government should tackle these allegations as soon as possible."
The US State Department in June downgraded Thailand to its lowest status, Tier 3, in its 2014 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report for not fully complying with minimum standards for the elimination of human trafficking.
After being listed as Tier 2 for four years, Thailand joined Syria, Iran, North Korea and 17 other nations in Tier 3.
The TIP report contains no mechanism for imposing trade barriers but states that any US opposition to assistance for foreign governments must exclude trade-related assistance. But the report could affect lending to the country, as the US could pressure international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank not to lend to Thailand.
The allegations centre on the shrimp, fish, sugar-cane, garment and pornography industries.