ADB: Growth from reform, right policies

ADB: Growth from reform, right policies

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slashed Thailand's economic growth to 4% next year from 4.5% previously, while Bangkok Bank (BBL) forecasts growth of 3-4% for 2015.

Public and private investment, domestic consumption and improved export performance would contribute to attaining the buoyant growth forecast, ADB president Takehiko Nakao said.

"I believe the Thai economy can grow even stronger and the potential growth rate should be more than 5% because of its strategic location as a core country in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)," he said.

"Due to Thailand's strategic location in the GMS, broad industrial base and rich natural resources for agribusiness and tourism, it has the potential to reach high income status through continued reform efforts and appropriate policies."

The country also has a set of diversified industries, particularly the auto sector, to reap benefits from the GMS grouping, said Mr Nakao.

The stable political environment will also lend support to economic activities next year, he said.

The ADB forecasts exports will grow between 3-4% next year, down from the projection of 5-6% made in September.

The National Social and Economic Development Board puts economic growth next year at 3.5% to 4.5%, while the Bank of Thailand has lowered its 4.8% growth projection but an official announcement will be made next Friday.

Yasushi Negishi, ADB's country director for Thailand, said the nation's economic slowdown had bottomed out as the government had been trying to stimulate growth through public spending.

"In terms of domestic investment and consumption, I think the economy is going in a positive direction," he said.

Mr Negishi is confident that the government will implement its infrastructure investment as planned and that would be the main driver of growth momentum in 2015.

However, the export sector has to be cautious on fragile global economic developments on the back of Russia's ailing economy and the weakening rouble, he said.

Public investment will be the main driver championing better growth prospects next year as domestic consumption remains constrained by swelling household debt, said Luxmon Attapich, ADB's senior economist for Thailand.

GDP growth is expected at 1% this year, with exports growing at the same level, according to the ADB forecast.

Increasing uncertainties over the global economic rebound, the impact of recent populist policies and lacklustre domestic consumption still lie ahead, said BBL's executive chairman Kosit Panpiemras.

Public spending will be the major economic engine next year, he said.

Recent populist policies would haunt economic growth over the next few years, but at a dwindling magnitude, he said.

He predicts global economic uncertainties remain next year, with the stuttering recovery of the US and slowing growth in China, Japan and the euro bloc. Such a situation could stir fund flows across the world and depress exports next year.

Further easing monetary policy by cutting the policy rate would not help domestic consumption amid swelling household debt stemming from populist policies, said Mr Kosit.

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