Lower-than-expected economic growth this year could see the ratio of public debt to GDP climb slightly.
If economic growth expands at a slower pace than expected during the fourth quarter, full-year growth will be lower than the forecast of 1.4%, finance permanent secretary Rungson Sriworasat said yesterday, adding that the public debt ratio would increase marginally.
Rungson: Warning over debt ratio
The Fiscal Policy Office recently said economic growth would reach 1.4% this year if fourth-quarter GDP increased by 4% year-on-year.
The possibility of the economy growing by less than 1% is real.
Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula earlier estimated fourth-quarter GDP would come in at between 2.5% and 3%. Finance Minister Sommai Phasee has admitted the economy is likely to grow by less than 1% due largely to tepid exports and delays in public spending.
As of Oct 31, public debt amounted to 5.64 trillion baht or 46.5% of GDP.
Mr Rungson said it would take a few months to assess whether the budget deficit would increase to 300 billion baht in the next fiscal year.
Mr Sommai recently said Thailand must continue running budget deficits over the next few years, as it was liable for hefty spending on infrastructure development and losses from rice subsidy schemes.
The ministry's ambitious goal of a balanced budget by 2017 is thus unlikely.
The government set budget expenditure for fiscal 2015, which started on Oct 1, at 2.575 trillion baht and revenue collection at 2.325 trillion, leaving a deficit of 250 billion.
The Finance Ministry will today revise some details of its public debt management plan for this fiscal year related to the government's issue of five- and 10-year savings bonds.
The savings bonds are expected to be sold to the public from Jan 6.