Amid growing scepticism over Thailand's economic growth prospects for the new year, economists are divided on whether GDP will expand by less than its potential of 4%.
United Overseas Bank Ltd is forecasting Thai economic growth of 4% in 2015 on the back of a recovery in domestic consumption, increased private investment and steady export growth, said Francis Tan, a Singapore-based Asian economist connected with the bank.
Despite high household debt accumulation, domestic consumption is expected to pick up, with higher real wages resulting from healthier economic growth and low unemployment, while the low benchmark interest rate should lend support to investment and consumption demand.
"We are thinking that [private] investment will come again in 2015 because of a return to stability, and the upcoming Asean Economic Community will rekindle another series of 'relook' investment in Thailand," Mr Tan said.
Delays in infrastructure spending will have an effect if promised projects went unfulfilled, he said.
The economy grew by 6.5% in 2012 after rebounding from the 2011 floods. But the growth rate fell to 2.9% last year, and this year's growth prospects are dim after protracted political unrest in the first half hit growth momentum and exports turned in a dismal showing.
The National Social and Economic Development Board expects 2015 economic growth in a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, while the Bank of Thailand is expected to lower its 4.8% projection in an announcement on Friday.
Mr Tan said the stagnant economic conditions were likely to recede next year due to a consumption recovery supported by growing wages, a pickup in manufacturing output stemming from private investment flows and greater foreign direct investment in Thailand to reap the benefits of the Asean single market.
Exports are expected to grow by 2% next year, he said, fuelled by strong demand from Asean markets, China and the US.
External downside risks to Thailand's economic growth include the slowdown in major trade partner China, the weaker-than-expected US economic recovery, uncertainty in the euro zone and volatility in oil prices.
TMB Analytics, meanwhile, has cut its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 4%.
The country's economic expansion will perform at lower than potential in the new year, said Benjarong Suwankiri, head of TMB Analytics.
Achieving 3.5% growth alone would require support from all economic engines — public spending, private investment, domestic consumption and exports, he said.
The research house predicts a similar 3.5% rate for 2015 export growth.
Concerns remain about delays in budget disbursement and higher household debt.
Such negative factors could pressure private-sector investment and consumption.
Under the government's planned infrastructure investment of 68 billion baht next year, much will be taken up with the process of bidding and expropriation of land.
"Under this scenario, we don't think the country's economy will grow vigorously next year amid the country's reform and a weak global economic rebound," Mr Benjarong said.
The bright side is the Thai economy will almost certainly grow at a higher rate than this year's.
TMB Analytics recently cut its 2014 economic growth forecast to 0.6% from 1%.