Car production is expected to recover to 2.2 million vehicles next year after falling by 22.7% this year, says the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
Surapong Paisitpatanapong, spokesman for the FTI's automotive industry club, said the industry was expected to end this year with production of only 1.9 million vehicles, marking the first time since 2011 that production would miss 2 million.
Thailand's automotive output surpassed 2 million vehicles for the first time in 2012, to 2.453 million vehicles, propelled by the first-time car buyer scheme and massive demand after massive floods hit several provinces including Bangkok in 2011.
Car output rose slightly last year to 2.457 million vehicles, boosted by outstanding back orders in the scheme.
Mr Surapong said 1.2 million vehicles would be exported and 1 million sold domestically next year.
"The club expects global car demand next year will be driven mainly by Australia and Asia including the Middle East as well as new markets such as North America," he said.
However, Mr Surapong said the industry's main area of concerns were the sharp drop in Russia's rouble and the end of EU tax privileges from Jan 1.
Thai car exports to the EU are expected to reach 90,000 this year.
Overall car exports are expected to increase slightly by 0.89% to 1.13 million.
Domestic sales are projected at only 850,000, a 36.1% fall.
The club yesterday reported that November output fell by 13.6% year-on-year to 158,038 vehicles, with production in the first 11 months down by 24.9% to 1.73 million.
Domestic sales stood at 73,068 vehicles last month, down by 21.8% year-on-year due mainly to the poor economy and delayed government spending.
Mr Surapong said new investment and business expansion had yet to recover, as evidenced by the decline in imported materials.
Over the first 11 months, 792,328 vehicles were sold, down by 34.9% from the same period last year.
Thailand shipped 106,591 vehicles in November, up by 11% year-on-year.