While business and economics are not necessarily zero-sum games, there is no doubt that 2014 has seen several clear winners and losers.Here the Bangkok Post takes a look at which sectors and businesses prospered, and which languished, over the past 12 months.
A salesgirl shows a customer a selection of set-top boxes. Pattarachai Preechapanich
Digital TV
Makers of set-top boxes, antennas and TV sets have cashed in on the digital transition, which has created high demand for related devices.
Digital TV hardware has become easily affordable as producers cut prices amid fierce competition. Product functions have grown more user-friendly.
Viewers who want to watch content from 24 new digital TV channels must install a digital TV set-top box or have a smart TV with a built-in digital receiver. Otherwise, they can watch digital TV through the satellite and cable platforms.
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) announced a coupon-subsidy scheme to shoulder some of the cost of switching from analogue terrestrial to digital TV. Each coupon is worth 690 baht, and all 23 million households nationwide are eligible.
The 15-billion-baht scheme is funded by cash raised from the digital TV auctions in late 2013. The programme was delayed many times until it got approval from the military government in October. The first lot of 4.6 million coupons was distributed to families in Bangkok and major provinces on Oct 20.
At least 42 hardware companies are taking part in the scheme. The regulator says the subsidy will generate at least 30 billion baht in sales for hardware makers.
The NBTC was seen as bungling the initial public relations campaign as people did not have digital TV awareness and would not redeem the coupons. Redemption later improved considerably.
A total of 7.05 million coupons are to be distributed to Thai households by the end of 2014.
The big set-top box makers have said device supply is lagging behind demand. Some companies will expand their production capacity next year.
As of last Wednesday, more than 2.1 million vouchers had been redeemed, a rate of 30,000 vouchers a day on average. Set-top box makers and retailers have found that many customers prefer to buy high-priced devices with advanced functions.
The NBTC is also mulling an expansion of the coupon scheme to cover 5 million slum residents and unregistered households.
E-commerce
Online shopping has witnessed phenomenal growth in Thailand as retail websites reported a hefty 30% increase in sales this year, thanks to the influx of new global e-commerce players and a successful heavy discount strategy.
This was the year when e-commerce truly went mainstream. Sales of apparel and accessories saw maximum growth.
Thailand is one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing e-commerce markets, thanks to the high penetration rate of smartphones at 37%.
Thailand's internet use has seen the highest increase in the world, climbing 34 places to 71st, up from last year's 105th place out of 166 countries, according to the latest global study by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The number of internet users amounts to 26 million.
The ITU attributed the fast migration from 2G to 3G mobile services to the explosion of internet use.
Thailand has the world's third highest number of Facebook users with 28 million accounts and the world's second largest number of Line users, standing at 33 million.
A study by Singapore Post Ltd estimates the value of Thailand's e-commerce market at US$1 billion in 2014, forecast to rise to $6 billion by 2025.
Shoppers in Thailand are increasingly using their smartphones to buy things, with some e-commerce companies reporting that up to 30% of their traffic comes from mobile devices.
After a series of consolidations that saw many e-commerce sites merging and the entry of new global e-commerce sites in the local market this year, it's time for e-commerce firms to accelerate Thailand's online shopping next year.
E-commerce ventures are set to increase their marketing budgets and implement more aggressive marketing as they seek to boost brand awareness to lure the next wave of online shoppers.
They are likely to step up efforts to win shoppers through marketing campaigns that tout discounts, new products and services such as quick delivery. The industry expects to see e-commerce companies take a more aggressive approach to marketing to reach a wider audience.
Leader of the pack... Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha leads the way in a bicycle ride after opening the 'Sor Sor Sor Presents a Day Bike Fest 2014' at the Airport Rail Link's Makkasan station. Patipat Janthong
Bicycle sales
Cycling is becoming increasingly popular in Thailand despite critics arguing that cycling on the streets of Bangkok and other cities is imprudent if not dangerous given the hot weather, undisciplined drivers and traffic congestion as well as city planning that was not designed for cyclists.
For cycling aficionados, however, it is adventurous and relatively safe if proper caution is exercised.
More importantly, it is good for the health and the environment besides saving energy and reducing traffic as well as being an ideal outdoor recreation.
It is now common for affluent Thais to own two or three mountain bikes, road bikes, folding bikes, single-speed bikes and children's bikes.
Thailand's bicycle market is estimated to grow to 6 billion baht this year, up from only 2 billion five years ago.
The Commerce Ministry says that bicycle imports have risen consecutively over the last four years from 731 million baht in 2011 to 1.53 billion last year.
The average price for regular bicycles sold here is 8,000 to 20,000 baht, and most people buy bikes in this price range.
With a population of 70 million, Thailand sells between 1.3 and 1.5 million bicycles annually.
There are about 70 bicycle distributors in Thailand compared with only six or seven a decade ago.
That figure excludes more than 300 dealers nationwide.
About 90% of distributors are importers of international brands that focus on high-performance sports models.
Nonetheless, one of the key drivers of the bicycle market's growth is attributed to lower import tariff for bicycles, now charged at only 1%, making prices attractive and affordable to Thai customers.
The number of cyclists is growing, with many cycling lovers choosing to become sport riders, said Kongpan Pramoj, director of Bike Zone Co, the authorised importer and distributor of bicycles for Cervelo of Canada, Ceepo of Japan and Marin and Quintana Roo of the US.
For sport, imported bicycles from international brands are preferable due to their technology and in-depth research and development.
A continued plunge in global oil prices has posted impacts on global economy and politic as well as local stock market and energy sector. Thanarak Khunton
Crude oil
The global crude price has plunged nearly 50% from a peak of US$110 a barrel in June to $60 today, fuelling fears over the impact on other industries.
Energy giant PTT Plc, the biggest-cap stock on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, closed on Friday at 330 baht, down 17% from its recent high in November.
Oil demand has dropped to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to the latest forecast of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
Crude prices have fallen further since Opec decided in November to keep its production ceiling unchanged despite expectations that the oil cartel would move to cut output in response to the global oil glut.
For 2014, the US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) puts global demand at slightly more than 900,000 barrels a day. Production has continued at a higher level than demand despite the continuing downward trend of oil prices.
Opec expects demand for the cartel's oil of 28.9 million barrels a day in 2015, 280,000 barrels less than its previous forecast and the lowest in 12 years.
Add to that a new report from the EIA, which also cut its 2015 forecast for growth in global oil demand by 240,000 barrels a day.
Opec's refusal on Nov 27 to cut its production level below 30 million barrels a day has added to the oil glut that started with the US boom in high-quality shale oil.
Opec members are expected to endure a dramatic lowering of their income, with a 14% decrease in 2014 and a likely continuation of the trend in 2015.
In response to the price plunge, PTT has attempted to offset shrinking revenue from the wider spread between feedstock and final petrochemical product.
PTT says demand for aromatics and olefins in Asia still looks bright.
Retail sector
Retail is among this year's biggest losers, having been hit hard by the country's political unrest, stagnant economy, poor consumer purchasing power and lacklustre spending sentiment.
Since late last year, the retail sector began to be obviously affected by the political impasse. Declining sales were caused by the prolonged political demonstrations that took place in many locations in Bangkok.
All retail segments were hurt, particularly shopping complexes located in the heart of the capital such as Pathumwan, Siam Square and Ratchaprasong intersection as these areas were occupied by anti-government rallies during the Bangkok shutdown campaign launched on Jan 13.
Retail service hours were shortened from the regular times, which resulted in a sharp drop in customers and sales.
Another factor unfavourable to the retail sector was the worsened traffic that impeded moving around the capital. Many roads and streets were congested and closed down because they were occupied by demonstrators.
Traffic congestion hindered people from going shopping and dinning out. Spending by middle-income groups also fell sharply as they formed the majority of demonstrators.
Apart from the political stalemate, other major factors affecting local spending power include mounting household debt, which was a result of the first-time car buyers' scheme, and weak purchasing power of the grass roots who earned less due to falling farm product prices and the rice-pledging scheme's payment delays.
Not only fashion but also daily goods reported a big drop in sales — even instant noodles, a perennial essential among Thais. Sales of instant noodles this year grew only 1.4%, the lowest in 42 years.
The Thai Retailers Association revised sales growth in 2014 to only 2-5%, down from an earlier projection of 8-10%. The department store sector is likely to experience the biggest impact, with many operators expecting zero sales growth this year.
However, the situation gradually improved in the second half of this year. Major retailers have announced big investment plans for next year.
Cash crops
Rubber is likely to be the biggest loser among major cash crops this year, given its weak price — the lowest in five years.
Raw rubber sheets averaged 41-43 baht a kilogramme this month, tumbling more than 76% from the peak level recorded in 2011.
Prices of raw rubber sheets in the Thai market rose to a historic high in February 2011 at 172 baht per 1 kg, reflecting global demand which had been strong since the previous year.
Bullish farm prices were a major factor driving the economy in the South to grow at a strong clip during 2010 to 2011, helping to boost local consumption significantly. Car sales in southern provinces increased sharply and most of the buyers were rubber growers, drawing the country's overall auto sales to expand nearly 46% to 800,357 units.
However, the prosperity proved to be short-lived.
Rubber prices started to tumble in 2012 and have declined steadily to only 41-43 baht per 1 kg for raw sheets this month, due to the sluggish economies of buyers such as China, Japan and the EU. Falling oil prices, which led manufacturers to use more synthetic rubber, have added pressure to natural rubber sales.
While demand is on the decline, local supply is likely to grow further, especially from new planting areas promoted by the government a decade ago.
The Thai Rubber Trade Association reports that tapping areas have increased significantly to 17.4 million rai this year, up from 10.4 million in 2004, but export volume has not expanded relatively and this will continue to affect rubber prices in the future.
Rice is another cash crop that has suffered from price falls this year after the military government ended the three-year subsidy scheme which bought paddy at 40% higher than the market price.
The termination, together with high state stockpiles, have brought down paddy prices to a mere 7,500 to 7,800 baht a tonne, only half of what farmers received from the government's pledging scheme.
With abundant supplies, Thai rice prices are expected to stay low for another year.
The dwindling income from these two major crops which involve more than 20% of the population will inevitably have an adverse impact on the economy next year.
Tourists enjoy themselves in Phuket. The industry has been drastically hit this year, with international tourist arrivals falling 8.61% in the first 11 months. Patipat Janthong
Tourism industry
The tourism industry has travelled a rocky road this year, facing many challenges ranging from the political crisis, the coup, the curfew and then martial law, all of which caused the industry to hit rock bottom in the first nine months.
Although the political conflict has gradually been eased with the forming of the military government in early September, the tourism sector has not yet fully recovered.
The imposition of martial law made foreign tourists feel uncertain about visiting Thailand as foreign insurance companies do not provide travel insurance coverage for countries under martial law.
The number of international tourist arrivals dropped 8.61% to 21.9 million in the first 11 months of this year, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
Tourism revenue will miss this year's 2-trillion-baht target as well.
The global economic downturn, especially in Europe and the rouble's devaluation, has dealt a big blow to Thai tourism and hurt both tourist arrivals and tourism revenue.
The recent sharp fall of Russia's currency by almost 50% has caused reservations by Russians for this peak season to hit the lowest level in 12 years particularly in Pattaya, the most popular destination for Russian tourists.
While European visitors have seen a decline, Asia has strong potential markets such as China and India.
With all these issues, the TAT has revised down its projection of 2014 tourist arrivals to 25.5 million, down from 28 million, and revenue will be reduced to 1.9 trillion baht, down from 2 trillion baht.
Meanwhile, international tourist arrivals have shown positive growth since October, rising by 6.14% year-on-year for that month, and 2.53% in November.
This has led tourism operators to pin their hopes on a recovery next year, with 2015's tourism revenue target set at 2.15 trillion baht.
Automotive market
The automotive market seemed to come full circle in 2014 after two years of unconventional growth fuelled by generous tax rebates under the first-time car buyer scheme of the Yingluck Shinawatra government.
Local car sales in the latest report of the Federation of Thai Industries were estimated at 850,000 vehicles for 2014, far below the FTI's original forecast of 1.2 million and against 1.32 million sold in 2013 and 1.43 million sold in 2012.
Likewise, motorcycle sales are expected to fall by 15.2% in 2014 to 1.7 million, marking the first year of the past three in which domestic sales would miss 2 million.
Sales of motorcycles surpassed 2 million for the first time in 2011 with a figure of 2.01 million. Sales rose to 2.13 million in 2012 before dropping to 2,004,000 last year.
On the production front, conditions have yet to recover. Output is expected to fall by 22.7% in 2014, due to the unfavourable economy and poor domestic sales.
The industry is expected to end the year with production of 1.9 million vehicles, marking the first time since 2011 that production would miss 2 million.
Thailand's automotive output surpassed 2 million vehicles for the first time in 2012, reaching 2.45 million vehicles, propelled by the first-time car buyer scheme and huge demand after floods hit several provinces and Bangkok in 2011.
Car output rose slightly in 2013 to 2.457 million vehicles, boosted by outstanding back orders under the first-car scheme.
Nonetheless, while the mass automotive segment shrank significantly in 2014, the luxury market and premium big motorcycles seemed less affected.
Luxury cars are expected to post 2014 sales growth of 5-10% to nearly 20,000 vehicles, while overall sales of big motorcycles are tipped to rise to 15,000 from 13,000 in 2013.
Suparat Sirisuwannangkura, senior vice-president of Toyota Motor Thailand, struck a positive note.
"Automobiles may look bearish this year if we compare with massive sales that exceeded 1 million vehicles a year in the past two years," he said. "But in my perspective, the industry remains healthy and promising."