Thai stocks closed out the final trading session of 2014 on a marginally sour note, but they still recorded a 15.32% gain for the year.
Investors are betting that the Thai economy will be in better shape next year, a US Federal Reserve interest rate increase is unlikely in the first half and that other major economies will provide growth stimulus.
However, analysts warn that returns for next year could be lower than this year as the falling oil price could pressure earnings of heavyweight energy and petrochemical plays.
The SET index moved on a roller-coaster throughout the year, with the lowest close at 1,224.62 points and the highest close at 1,600.16 points. Average daily turnover in 2014 fell 13.45% to 41.6 billion baht.
Stocks swung wildly on Dec 15 when the board index crashed by 9.2% at one point — the biggest intraday loss since October 2008 — before bargain hunting pared the early steep loss as the SET index closed 2.41% lower.
The massive sell-off could be largely attributed to panic selling on an unidentified rumour and the oil price's nosedive.
The main board's market capitalisation had inflated by 20.52% to 13.86 trillion baht at the end of 2014.
In 2014, retail investors yanked 38.42 billion baht out of the market, while foreign investors sold 36.58 billion more than they bought.
At the other end of the scale, institutional investors were the biggest net buyers with a position of 71.42 billion baht, while brokers also ploughed a net amount of 3.58 billion into the bourse.
The magnitude of foreign investors' sell-off this year was far smaller than in 2013 when they pulled almost 200 billion baht out of the market to flee back to the US.
The SET index yesterday inched down by 0.04% or 0.55 points to 1,497.67 points with thin trade value of 25.33 billion baht.
However, it was the best year for small and mid-cap stocks.
As of Dec 29, Asset Bright (ABC) was the year's best performer, rocketing 2,740% to 4.60 baht, followed by Rich Asia Steel (RICH) at 976% to 1.92 baht, Pan Asia Footwear (PAF) at 959% to 6.25 baht, Superblock (SUPER) at 478% to 16.50 baht, and Singha Estate (S) at 449% to 8.90 baht.
For the top losers, MFC Amazing A-la Andaman (M-AAA) slipped 94% to 0.79 baht, followed by Asiasoft Corporation (AS) falling 57% to 3.80 baht, Indara Insurance (INSURE) down 45% to 37 baht, Amarin Printing (AMARIN) down 45% to 10.50 baht, and MCOT down 44% to 16.30 baht.
The Market for Alternative Investment, the bourse for small-cap stocks, surged by 96% in 2014.
Kasikorn Securities vice-president Kitpon Pripisankit said returns from the main bourse could be around 10% next year, based on its informal SET index forecast of a range of 1,400 to 1,650 points.
"We still stick to the current forecast for the 2015 SET index in a range of 1,500 to 1,750 points, but we estimate that the sharp decline in oil price could wipe out our EPS (earnings per share) growth of the SET by 10% from 117 baht and this could narrow our SET index forecast by 100 points either way," he said.
Moreover, the SET's trading alert list measures, which will take effect from Jan 5, are expected to curb speculation in small and mid-cap stocks.
Large-cap stocks are likely to outperform small-cap stocks next year due to their attractive valuations and higher dividend yields, Mr Kitpon said.