Set tracks global moves linked to jobs and oil

Set tracks global moves linked to jobs and oil

Recap: Crude oil prices, which slipped to below $50 a barrel, jolted global stock markets early last week before equities revived on upbeat US jobs data. The Thai stock market also tracked the global market's direction.

The SET Index moved in a range of 1,459.22 and 1,523.32 points and closed at 1529.42, up 2.1% from the previous week, on average daily turnover of 45.78 billion baht. Retail investors were net buyers of 312.94 million baht in shares and foreigners were net sellers of 8.12 billion baht. Institutions were net buyers of 4.17 billion baht and brokers bought 3.64 billion more than they sold.

Big movers: The renewable energy firm TPC Power Holding (TPCH) gained 9% from its IPO price on its debut on Thursday. Top gainer KC jumped 235% to 5.20 baht and top loser TIES fell 38% to 0.70 baht. WAT led in trading volume, down 33.3% to 0.04 baht. The top three by turnover value were PTT, up 4.32% to 338 baht; KBANK, unchanged at 229 baht; and TRUE, up 8.11% to 12 baht.

Newsmakers: Euro zone consumer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in December, the first time inflation had turned negative since 2009. The euro fell to a nine-year low of $1.1816, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy.

Minutes of the Dec 16-17 US Federal Reserve meeting confirmed that the central bank would not start the "normalisation" process (raising interest rates, in other words) before late April at the earliest.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the week ended Jan 3 and job cuts declined sharply in December, suggesting the labour market is tightening. Hiring data released n Friday was strong but figures showing that wages fell by the most in eight years rattled Wall Street.

The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) minister has dismissed a rumour that a planned auction of fourth-generation (4G) spectrum could be stalled, saying his ministry does not have the legal authority to intervene in auctions.

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) says a 4G auction is its top priority this year, along with issuing at least three licences for state-run digital TV channels. The regulator said it would have to finish the 4G auction for at least 42.5MHz of spectrum by August, as the 900-MHz concession held by mobile market leader AIS expires on Sept 30.

The NBTC and mobile phone operators agreed to introduce per-second call billing, which is fairer to consumers than per-minute billing. The regulator said the switch would take 6-12 months, but that was before Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha went on TV on Friday night and promised the public the new system would be in place by March 1.

Government spending is speeding up after state agencies were told to sign contracts in December for infrastructure projects costing less than 500 million baht, while contracts for projects costing more than 500 million must be signed by March 31.

The government has proposed a 10-year plan to overhaul water management systems at a cost of 900 billion baht, a marked increase from the 350-billion-baht budget proposed by the Yingluck Shinawatra administration. The latter plan was heavily criticised for its heavy reliance on loans, whereas the new plan will rely mainly on government budgets.

The consumer confidence index rose to 81.1 points in December from 79.4 in November, helped primarily by falling oil prices, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce reported.

Energy policymakers have approved a new formula for LPG pricing by using a median price based on costs from three major sources — imported LPG, local gas separation plants and oil refineries — in order to be fair for users in different segments and to reflect actual costs. As a result, the ex-plant LPG cost will increase from the fixed rate of $333 a tonne in place since 2005 to $488, and will be reviewed monthly. The new formula will take effect from Feb 2 but LPG retail prices will remain unchanged until March.

Finance Minister Sommai Phasee said the draft land and buildings tax law may include exemptions for land held by developers for no more than two years, and residences worth no more than 1 million baht. Three tax ceilings have been finalised. Land for agricultural purposes will be taxed at no more than 0.5% of value, residences at no more than 1% and idle land at no more than 4%.

The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) said the Commerce Ministyry's forecast of export growth of between 3.5% and 4.0% — after no growth last year — would be difficult to achieve. Obstacles include the termination of GSP tariff breaks for Thai goods shipped to the EU, the fragile Chinese and Japanese economies, sinking oil prices and the Ebola threat, it said. The TNSC projects export growth of 2.5% this year.

The Finance Ministry and the BAAC will issue 100 billion baht worth of bonds, with the proceeds to clear some of the 600 billion baht in debt from the previous government's rice-pledging scheme. The Finance Ministry will issue 50 billion in 10-year bonds paying 3% in the first three years, 4% in the fourth to seventh years, then 5% in the eighth to 10th years. The five-year BAAC bonds will pay a fixed 3.8% annual rate.

An attempt by Berli Jucker Plc (BJC) to buy Metro Group's cash-and-carry unit in Vietnam was aborted after BJC shareholders voted unanimously to reject the €655-million (25 billion baht) deal. Minority shareholders feared high financial and litigation risks.

BAY completed its integration with the Bangkok branch of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU). The move brings Krungsri's total assets to 1.7 trillion baht, comparable to those of its four larger Thai peers.

Coming up this week: US retail sales for December and euro-zone industrial production figures for November are due on Wednesday. The US and euro zone will release December inflation data on Friday.

Stocks to watch: Kasikorn Securities recommends buying stocks related to construction and aviation for the first half, and commodities, energy shares and banks for the second half on expectations of economic recovery.

Asia Plus Securities recommends dividend plays with low market prices such as ASK, SITHAI, STPI, DELTA, AP and KTB. It also recommends two foreign investment funds (FIF) — Tisco Europe Equity Fund and UOB Smart Japan Small and Mid Cap — for diversification.

Technical view: Finansia Syrus Securities sees support at 1,512 and 1,518 and resistance at 1,532 and 1,540. Country Group puts support at 1,515 and resistance at 1,538.

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