Thailand's export outlook will continue to be murky this year, with growth projected at 3.1%, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Outbound containers are likely to be less packed this year, according to the UTCC. (File photo by Kosol Nakachol)
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the university's Center for International Trade Studies, projected Thai shipments at US$234 billion in 2015. "Although the world economy is recovering, we continue to see more negatives factors than good news."
The supporting factors are the recovering world economy and lower oil prices. "Thanks to its improving economy, the United States will emerge as the key market for us, with growth expected at 4.2% this year from 3.7% in 2014."
Asean, especially Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, will continue to play a big part for Thai exports as well.
On the other hand, the Europe market for Thai products will contract for the first time in three years. The negative factor in this market is the loss of tax privileges under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) on Jan 1 this year, which makes Thai products less competitive on the continent.
"The products likely to be hit the hardest in the absence of GSP privileges are exterior automotive tyres, rubber gloves, optical lenses, air conditioners and automobiles," he said.
To lessen the blow, Thai exporters should use neighbouring countries, most of which still enjoy the GSP privileges, as their production bases. They could do so by investing on their own or forming joint ventures with local partners. New strategies such as innovation and cost cutting should be pursued more vigorously to add value and improve product quality, he said.
"Other measures are finding new markets and pushing a free trade agreement with Europe or seeking extensions for certain products," he suggested.
Another challenge for Thai goods is the simmering ruble crisis although the impact will not be severe, Mr Aat said, adding Russia accounted for 0.54% or $1.21 billion of Thai exports. "But if the crisis widens throughout Europe, the fledgling world economic recovery will be at risk."
Declining farm prices are another factor to watch out for, Mr Aat warned.
Similar to Europe, the Japan market will keep shrinking for the fourth consecutive year. "China can offer no hope either since the market will also contract for the second year in a row."