Downside risks to the Bank of Thailand's export growth projection of 1% this year remain, as falling oil prices have affected the value of export products related to petroleum, says the Bank of Thailand.
Don Nakornthab, director of macroeconomic policy, said there was a possibility exports might fall below the 1% target, as the export value of oil-related products had declined due to a slump in global crude oil prices.
Those products are cassava, chemicals, rubber, petrochemicals and petroleum products, which make up one-fifth of Thailand's exports, he said.
"Several organisations have projected export growth of 4% this year, but they've not taken into account oil prices," Mr Don said.
"A decline in the price of oil-related exports would affect Thailand's export value, but the value of the exports would not affect GDP growth."
Exports account for 70% of the country's GDP.
The central bank predicts growth to register at 4% in 2015, while the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office recently trimmed its forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% and export growth outlook to 1.4% from 3.5% on expectations of a stronger baht prompted by an influx of capital from the European Central Bank's aggressive monetary stimulus programme.
The Commerce Ministry announced the country's exports shrank by 0.41% last year to US$228 billion, the second straight drop after shipments fell by 0.3% in 2013.
Mr Don said increasing economic uncertainty in the euro zone, particularly with Greece's debt negotiations and Germany and Russia's weakening conditions, posed further downside risks to Thai exports this year.
A recovery in both domestic demand and tourism growth could compensate for lukewarm export growth, but the central bank's projection of 26.5 million tourist arrivals is below the operators' forecast of 28-29 million, which the bank attributed to continuing martial law.
Exporters are turning pessimistic amid a spate of negative factors including termination of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in European countries, lower crop prices and volatile foreign exchange.
“Falling oil prices, increased relocation of production bases to neighbouring countries and a labour shortage will also affect exporters this year,” said Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC).
"Exporters expect the government to support handling foreign exchange instability and tackling terminal handling charges.”
Mr Nopporn said the TNSC cut its export growth forecast this year to only 1.5% at US$231 billion from 2.5% earlier this month.
It reported December exports amounted to US$18.8 billion, up by 1.9% year-on-year. December imports fell by 8.74% to $17.2 billion, leading Thailand to a trade surplus for the month of $1.58 billion.
"Exports are likely to see flat growth in the first half, with average export value of $18.9 billion a month," Mr Nopporn said. "Growth will reach 3% in the second half at $19.8 billion a month."
The council projects 5% US export growth this year, Japan 3% and Asean markets 1.5%. Shipments to Europe are expected to fall by 4% this year due to the economic slowdown.
The TNSC also proposed yesterday that the Internal Trade Department announce terminal handling charges price controls at ports after shipping lines last year said they would raise freight by 75% this year.
Shippers called for the terminal handling charge for a 20-foot container to be capped for one year at 2,600 baht and that for a 40-foot container at 3,900 baht.