Thai rice exporters are projecting shipments of just 10 million tonnes this year, mainly due to high prices for Thai grains.
The amount is much lower than the previous forecasts of the Commerce Ministry and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Charoen Laothammatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said yesterday.
The association expects shipments to fetch US$5.95 billion or 161 billion baht in 2015.
The 10-million-tonne amount includes 5 million tonnes of white rice, 2 million tonnes of Hom Mali fragrant rice, 2.7 million tonnes of parboiled rice, 100,000 tonnes of glutinous rice and 200,000 tonnes of Pathumthani fragrant rice.
The USDA earlier forecast Thai rice exports of 11.3 million tonnes, and the Commerce Ministry announced recently that it was upbeat on Thailand returning to global dominance with as much as 11 million tonnes shipped this year.
Thailand exported 10.96 million tonnes of rice last year, up 66% from 2013. Export value rose by 23% to $5.43 billion.
Mr Charoen said 2015 would be challenging for rice exports, with Thai rice now quoted at the highest price in the region.
For instance, key rival Vietnam's free-on-board price for 5% white rice is $350-360 a tonne, compared with Thai grains quoted at $405-410.
Last year, Thai rice prices were $20-30 cheaper than those of Vietnam.
"This year, Thailand is expected to see stiffer competition, while the government's massive rice stocks and volatile foreign exchange due to quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and Japan are likely to exert further pressure on the price of Thai rice," Mr Charoen said.
"Falling oil prices are also expected to lead potential rice buyers in Africa such as Nigeria to buy less."
Moreover, drought conditions are seen lowering domestic production, particularly for the second crop.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said lower exports would apply especially to white and parboiled rice, as potential buyers are expected to shift to cheaper grains from other rice producers because of falling oil prices and the strong baht.
Vichai Sriprasert, another honorary president of the association, said foreign exchange would play a key role in how Thai rice exports perform, with foreign QE measures of particular importance.
He urged the central bank to help manage the baht and move it in line with the currencies of other regional competitors.
"The Thai baht is now relatively strong compared with other currencies in the region, and even Singapore announced a surprise easing of its currency policy to dampen inflationary expectations and support growth," Mr Vichai said.