Thailand's retail industry is expected to grow by 5-10% this year from 1.55 trillion baht last year as local consumption recovers.
Suwit Kingkaew, a senior vice-president of CP All Plc, operator of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain, yesterday said local consumption was improving, and the momentum was expected to continue throughout 2015.
Retail growth this year will come partly from greater exports to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Last year GDP in those countries grew by 7-8%, while Thai exports to them rose by 14-18%.
"Thai products are popular in those countries but face competition from products from Vietnam and China," Mr Suwit said.
"The growth of border trade will be healthy this year."
Tourism is also tipped to help drive the Thai economy.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects Chinese tourist arrivals to reach 5.6 million this year and generate 240 billion baht in revenue.
Falling oil prices will lower operating and logistics costs for businesses and encourage people to spend more.
State spending on infrastructure projects and the agriculture sector should also prove positive for retail growth.
Though consumers still have household debts, they retain high purchasing power, as reflected in the continuing investment of big players such as Central Retail Corporation, Robinson Department Store and The Mall Group.
"Competition will gear towards small retail formats, as they have almost no expansion limit to find space, unlike the big retailers, which must comply with retail law and city zoning," said Mr Suwit, who is also president of the Development of Thai Capital Retailers Association.
Chains planning to open new stores this year include 7-Eleven, FamilyMart, Mini Big C, Tops Supermarket, Lawson 108 and Lotus Express.
Digital marketing will be an important tool for retailers to reach "lifestyle" consumers.
Thailand has 27 million internet users with 18.5 million Facebook accounts and more than 30 million smartphone numbers.
The e-commerce market is expected to be worth 329 billion baht this year and 750 billion next year.
Sompop Manarangsun, president of the Panyapiwat Institute of Management, predicts the retail industry will grow at a rate that is double the country's GDP growth.
The government should thus shift focus to the service sector instead of exports to drive economic growth, he said.
The service sector, which includes tourism, retail, logistics, health care, communications, leisure and entertainment, accounts for 48% of Thai GDP.
In many developed countries, the service sector contributes 60% or more.