Tourist arrivals in Thailand are expected to see a double-digit growth this year after plunging 6.66% last year, says the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
The forecast is based on the number of international visitor arrivals through major airports last month, as January's statistics from the Tourism and Sports Ministry are not yet available, director-general Krisada Chinavicharana said yesterday.
The number of foreign visitors via Bangkok's two major airports, Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang, last month surged 11.7% and 51.2% year-on-year, respectively.
However, international visitor arrivals at Phuket airport in the first month of this year fell by 4% due to the decline in Russian tourists following Russia's economic slump, he said.
Tourism revenue, which accounts for 9-10% of Thai GDP, is a major economic engine that the government hopes will help offset still-tepid exports and weak domestic consumption.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand earlier forecast total international tourist arrivals would hit 29 million this year, while tourism revenue would reach 2.2 trillion baht.
International tourist arrivals fell by 6.77% to 24.8 million last year.
In the meantime, Mr Krisada said value-added tax (VAT) income, a proxy for domestic consumption, rose at an annual rate of 9.5% in January.
However, VAT on imported goods tumbled 17.1% last month, making gross VAT revenue contract 2% year-on-year.
Motorcycle sales — another indicator of domestic consumption — expanded for the first time in January after a 14.3% contraction in 2014, jumping 14.3%.
On the other hand, consumer confidence in the country's economic condition fell to 69.7 points from December's 70.5.
Tax collected from real estate-related transactions rose by 16.2% in January after a rise of 15.6% in December due to a flurry of property ownership transfers for fear of the imminent inheritance and land and buildings taxes.
Cement sales, an indicator of private investment, swung back to contract 5.8% in January from 0.2% growth in December.
Public investment acceleration will be another major force in driving economic growth, Mr Krisada said.
The government this fiscal year has set an investment budget of 450 billion baht, accounting for 17.5% of yearly expenditure, and targeted taking out 70% of the investment budget.