Exports are expected to continue floundering in the coming months due largely to the slow economic recovery in major export markets and lower global oil and farm prices.
Wallop Vitankorn, vice-president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said exports were expected to remain in the red this month at the same rate as in February because the world's economy remained in the doldrums, dampening purchase demand.
Wallop: First-half dip highly likely
"The prospects remain gloomy as indicated by shrinking shipments in all major markets, be it China, Asean, Japan or the EU," he said.
"It is highly likely exports will contract in the first half of this year from flat growth in our earlier forecast due mainly to a sharp fall in industrial products, notably for oil and related products."
The TNSC earlier forecast exports were highly likely to see a first-quarter contraction of 2%, with the first-half performance to see flat growth.
Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) joined the fray yesterday, predicting Thai exports would fall 3.9% in the first quarter and possibly continue shrinking until late in the second quarter.
The research house of Kasikornbank forecast first-half shipments risk contracting by more than 2% year-on-year.
KResearch expects shipments will gradually recover in the second half as the economies of Thailand's major trading parters recover because oil prices stabilise, reducing pressure on the export values of oil and oil-related product prices.
KResearch predicted the country's overall shipments this year would see flat growth. Last year, shipments contracted 0.41% to US$228 billion.
Bangkok Bank executive chairman Kosit Panpiemras also projected Thai exports are likely to see zero growth this year as farm prices have yet to recover in line with the weak global economy and tepid purchase demand.
The Commerce Ministry reported yesterday exports fell for a second consecutive month in February, down by 6.14% year-on-year to $17.2 billion largely due to lower global oil and farm product prices.
Shipments of farm products fell by 12.5% year-on-year last month to $2.49 billion, particularly rubber, which fell 38.8%. Other major products including rice, sugar, and canned and processed seafood also saw big dips in exports last month.
Industrial product exports including gold and oil fell by 3.7% to $13.8 billion. Gold exports plunged 66% last month as traders delayed shipments and shifted their focus on imports for speculative purposes, while oil shipments fell 6.1% from February 2014.
However, imports edged up 1.47% year-on-year in February to $16.8 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $390 million compared with a $457-million deficit in January.
For the first two months, Thai exports totalled $34.5 billion, down by 4.82% year-on-year, with imports down 6.69% to $34.5 billion.
Commerce permanent secretary Chutima Bunyapraphasara said despite myriad challenges, her ministry remained positive exports would expand this year. However, she acknowledged the ministry would review its growth estimate after all the first-quarter data became available.
The Commerce Ministry projects 2015 export growth of 4%.
In a related development, the private sector yesterday repeated calls for the government to speed up measures to stabilise the baht so it would stay at a level that could give a competitive advantage to exporters.
Yesterday, the government invited 20 business leaders and associations to voice their concerns about its administration and economic issues.
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon said the main complaint was the baht was quite strong compared with other regional currencies.