Thailand can achieve the Finance Ministry's economic growth forecast of 3.7% this year if 70% of budget expenditure is taken out and exports grow at least 0.2%, says a senior official at the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
Whether budget disbursement for infrastructure investment, road construction and water management projects hits targets is also a crucial factor, said Kulaya Tantitemit, executive director of the macroeconomic policy bureau.
The FPO expects 45 billion baht of the investment budget for infrastructure development and 25 billion baht of the 78.2-billion-baht budget for road construction, repairs and water management will be drawn down this year.
State agencies managed to disburse 58.4% of the 2.575-trillion-baht budget expenditure during the seven months through April. They also took out 36.2% of the 449-billion-baht investment budget in the same period.
Value-added tax (VAT) collection, a proxy for domestic consumption, surged 12.8% year-on-year in April, though VAT on imported products fell 10.9%.
Cement and car sales, indicators of private investment, remained lukewarm with contractions of 3.3% and 27.3%, respectively, year-on-year in April, while imports of capital goods declined 3.7% if one-off import items of aeroplanes, electric trains and equipment are deducted.
Tax charged from property transactions last month jumped 9.4% year-on-year.
The number of foreign tourists shot up 25.1% to 2.42 million in April, Ms Kulaya said, adding that another 860,000 tourists arrived during the first 12 days of May.
Meanwhile, Moody's Investors Service said Thailand's deeply polarised politics remains a key issue affecting the growth outlook.
"If unresolved it could destabilise the country's economy again and erode Thailand's fundamental credit strengths," the international credit rating agency warned in its credit analysis.
Last year's May 22 coup restored public order and stemmed economic uncertainty, it said, adding that implementation of the government's fiscal reform plans as well as reform of state-owned enterprises would be credit positive for the country's sovereign rating.
Moody's added that credit positive signs would include strengthening public sector finances, limiting contingent liabilities and an improved political climate.
Credit negative developments would include heightened political tensions that impact tourism or manufacturing, increased government funding costs, or other weakening of the government's financial position.