Index hits 11-month low

Index hits 11-month low

Consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in May, hitting its lowest level in 11 months, as people remained worried about the pace of the economic recovery and low agricultural prices.

A survey of 2,253 respondents nationwide by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) showed the consumer confidence index fell to 75.6 points last month from 76.6 in April, 77.7 in March, 79.1 in February, 80.4 in January and 81.1 last December.

The May reading is the lowest since last June, when confidence began rising on the hopes of an economic rebound after the May 22 coup ended months of political unrest.

The survey said confidence in the overall economy fell to 65 points last month from 66 in April, while confidence about job openings and future income fell to 70.3 and 91.4 from 71.2 and 92.7, respectively.

UTCC vice-president Thanavath Phonvichai said indices fell across the board last month, reflecting public concern over the faltering economy, weak exports and low farm prices.

More importantly, overall domestic purchasing has yet to recover amid continued economic uncertainty.

"Although the National Economic and Social Development Board reported first-quarter growth of 3% year-on-year and expects a better the second half, people have yet to feel any effects since their incomes have not improved," Mr Thanavath said. "We expect this low confidence will linger into the third quarter."

He urged the government to rev up its spending and budget disbursement and suggested state banks cut loan rates further to stimulate consumption.

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to cut its policy rate yet again at next Wednesday's meeting to weaken the baht and boost exports.

At the end of April, the committee unexpectedly cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, the second cut this year.

The surprise move weakened the baht sharply. It sank last month to a nearly six-year low against the US dollar, a drop that exporters hope will help their products to become more competitive.

Somkiat Anuras, vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), said it might take until the third quarter for people to feel positive effects from the economic recovery.

TCC members from all five regions agreed at a meeting last month that the economy had already bottomed out and was beginning to recover, he said.

"People may feel the economy has yet to recover, but given the latest figures, we in the business sector believe it is getting better," Mr Somkiat said.

"We expect the economy in all regions will start showing better signs, notably in the late second quarter or early third quarter, with tourism and border trade major drivers."

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