The decline in Thai exports is not as bad as those experienced by some of neighbouring countries and, even with a contraction in shipments, the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) estimates that 3% economic growth is within reach this year.
Without the government's stimulus measures, economic growth would slow, as exports, which make up 70% of the country's GDP, have dropped at a faster pace than expected, said FPO director-general Krisada Chinavicharana.
"Export contraction is common globally. In the case of Thailand, shipments have shrunk at a lower pace than in several countries," he said.
Thailand's fall in exports is on a par with those in South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, while Indonesia and India have had respective decreases of 11% and 15.8%.
Plunging exports, delays in public investment and the worst drought in a decade have prompted policymakers and research houses to cut their growth forecasts for the Thai economy.
The Bank of Thailand recently trimmed its GDP forecast for this year to 3% from 3.8%, assuming shipments would shrink by 1.5%. The FPO is set to slash its growth projection of 3.7% later this month, while the National Economic and Social Development Board will cut its 3-4% growth forecast early next month.
The FPO's current growth forecast is based on an assumption that exports will expand by 0.2% this year.
Finance Minister Sommai Phasee recently said economic growth was projected to reach 2.6% in the second half, below the first half, preventing full-year growth from exceeding 3%.
Exports tumbled for a fifth straight month in May. Shipments fell by 5% year-on-year to US$18.4 billion last month, widening the export contraction for the first five months to 4.2%.
The government has launched a series of measures aimed at boosting the economy.
These include a 40-billion-baht cash handout to rice farmers, an 8-billion- baht giveaway to rubber growers, loans totalling 40 billion baht for low earners and farmers in rural areas through village funds, soft loans worth 15 billion baht for small businesses, and shortening the process for getting factory licences from 90 to 30 days.