TNSC cuts export forecast once more for 4.2% decline

TNSC cuts export forecast once more for 4.2% decline

The aerial view of Klong Toey port where goods are shipped from Thailand. (Bangkok Post file photo)
The aerial view of Klong Toey port where goods are shipped from Thailand. (Bangkok Post file photo)

Myriad negative factors are still holding back exports, prompting shippers to cut their forecast again to a 4.2% contraction this year.

Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), yesterday said given the limited positive factors, Thailand's exports were likely to shrink 4.2% this year to US$218 billion.

In June, the TNSC cut its export forecast to a 2% contraction from zero growth.

The Commerce Ministry on July 27 reported exports tumbled for a sixth straight month in June, down by 7.87% year-on-year to $18.2 billion, leading first-half performance to fall by 4.84% to $107 billion.

It was the biggest drop in exports since an 8.15% contraction in December 2011.

The fall was attributed mainly to the slow global economic recovery and low crude oil prices.

The poor first-half export showing led the Fiscal Policy Office last Tuesday to further decrease its full-year economic growth forecast to 3%, with exports falling by 4%.

In April, the Finance Ministry's think tank slashed its 2015 growth forecast to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in January and 4.1% last October. The previous 3.7% estimate had assumed export growth of 0.2%.

"The economies of most of Thailand's trade partners except the US have shrunk," Mr Nopporn said. "Moreover, oil prices remain low, with the manufacturing bases of key products relocating to emerging markets, hurting the competitiveness of Thai products."

He said despite the weak baht, Thai exports were expected to continue their contraction by 3.6% in the second half.

"We must now look at the worst-case scenario for Thai exports, which is contraction of 4.7% instead of 3.5% in an earlier forecast. This is due mainly to the slower pace of the world's economic recovery," he said.

Vice-chairman Vallop Vitanakorn said the TNSC's export forecast would stay in the red for the remaining months, with the figures down 2.5% in July, 2.5% in August, 6% in September, 7% in October and 2% in November and December.

"The weak baht is a help for sure, which should provide a boost to Thai shipments," he said.

"But the impact is only short term, as most exporters agreed on purchase orders before the currency became so weak."

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