The Commerce Ministry has lowered its projection for the value of Thai exports this year, cutting its growth prediction to a 3% contraction for 2015, due to reductions in imports by major markets still struggling under a weak global econoomy.
Somkiat Triratpan, director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, said the new ministry estimate was for exports of US$220.698 billion in total value, or 3% less than 2014's $227.519 billion.
This is down from the earlier projection of $230.304 billion, which was for a 1.2% growth over the 2014 figure.
The new projection is based on the assumption of a global oil price of $60 a barrel and exchange rate of 35 baht against the US dollar.
The new announced rate was lower than the zero growth referred to by Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya on Wednesday. The minister held a meeting with senior officials on Wednesday to re-evaluate export performance before announcing the new figure.
The Commerce Ministry last month reported Thai exports in June saw their biggest drop in three and a half years.
Shipments tumbled for a sixth straight month in June, falling by 7.87% year-on-year to a value of US$18.2 billion and yielding a first-half decline of 4.84% to $107 billion.
Mr Somkiat said the average oil price in the first half of the year was only $57 a barrel, about half the cost in the same period of last year, and the price trend was likely to continue until the end of the year.
Global farm prices were stable but at low level while exports of automobiles and parts, which accounted for 11% of total export value, had met a hiccup due to the change in pickup models that caused a drop in the export value in June and July.
He said said the weakening baht would have a positive impact on exports over the next few months. The exchange rate is likely to stay at 35 baht a dollar on average, helping to improve the competitiveness of Thai goods in the global market.