The official start of the Myanmar election campaign is only a week away, although opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi already appears to have hit the campaign trail. All indications are that it is going to be a very bitter battle.
More importantly, the tone set in the lead-up to the polls on Nov 8 will affect what happens afterward -- no matter what the actual results are. This is also likely to scare business, as a measure of instability is also likely to be the result.
The campaign slogan of the National League for Democracy (NLD), "Time for Change", certainly captures the prevailing mood across the country. But given the crisis within the party over the candidate selection process, the message to the electorate is do not consider who the constituency candidate is, but vote for the peacock flag and its leader.
"Our motto is a vote for the NLD, is a vote for Aung San Suu Kyi," said Win Htein -- currently an MP and very close to the NLD leader. He is originally from the Insein area in Yangon but stood for the byelection in 2012 for Meitikla where no one knew him.
" 'Who are you?' they asked me," he said recently. "So I said, 'Do you know Daw Aung San Suu Kyi? Do you love her? Then vote for me, I work for her!'" He scored an overwhelming victory as a result.
This approach will certainly bring people to the polls to vote for the Nobel laureate. But will it be enough for the landslide victory Aung San Suu Kyi expects? She has been confidently telling diplomats that the NLD will win 80% of the seats being contested. That would give her party 60% of the total since 25% of the parliamentary seats are automatically reserved for soldiers nominated by the commander-in-chief.
"We'll assuredly win," said Win Htein confidently.
However, an NLD win would put Aung San Suu Kyi into direct conflict with the military, and rather than bringing stability would cause increased uncertainty about the future, and further depress the economic outlook. Businesses, investors and manufacturers are already complaining about stagnation and are hesitant about the future because of the forthcoming polls.
The NLD has also alienated the Muslim population -- around 4% of the country's total of 51 million -- by banning the selection of Muslim candidates, even in Muslim areas. This has meant some high-profile candidates were turned down. The order came from the party's top leaders.
Fear of angering Buddhist nationalists -- especially the Committee for the Protection of Nationality and Religion, which is better known by its Burmese acronym Ma Ba Tha and includes the firebrand monk Ashin Wirathu -- convinced the party's leaders to exclude Muslims from their constituency list.
"It wasn't easy and involved a lot of soul-searching," said a member of the party's central executive, who declined to be identified.
In the end, though, the most likely outcome of the election is a hung parliament -- with the NLD the largest party, but without an absolute majority.
"It will be a coalition government, which means a weak government, though it must include the military," Dr Phone Win, who runs a Yangon microfinance company with 2,000 small-business clients, told Asia Focus. "This could increase freedom [for business] as the government can only concentrate on a few private-sector areas, which would reduce bureaucratic interference and increase opportunities for all."
A hung parliament and coalition government means the NLD would have to count on the other smaller parties and ethnic groups in parliament to put Aung San Suu Kyi into the driver's seat -- to elect the president, form the government and push for constitutional change.
"She needs the nationalities to be able to do anything in parliament," Khun Htun Oo, leader of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), said in an interview. "We'll support her; we won't haggle with the military."
But the NLD's aggressive stance in some ethnic areas may alienate other parties. "We asked the NLD to consider an electoral alliance," said Khun Htun Oo, "but they ignored us."
Unhappy though they may be, most of the ethnic parties won't side with the military.
"It is the widespread hatred of the military, and what they have done to the country and people over the last 60 years, that will give the NLD its overwhelming electoral edge," said Dr Yan Myo Thein, a political commentator and former political prisoner.
But more worrying for the post-election period is Aung San Suu Kyi's determined effort to make this a two-way fight -- between democrats and the military. She has repeated this mantra several times over the last few weeks, notably after a series of proposed constitutional changes were effectively vetoed by the military MPs in parliament. It will win her popularity and votes for sure. But it may handicap her in the longer run after the election.
During the combined campaign to change the constitution last year with the 88 Group, the NLD leader's allies warned her not to antagonise the army and to resist confronting them head-on. She ignored their advice and angered the military leaders, especially Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. As a result he cancelled a planned meeting with her in June, which she had been seeking for nearly two years. Keeping communications channels open with the army is essential.
This is critical as the army will remain the kingmakers in Myanmar's future political landscape after the elections. Already former senior military officers, turned academics and analysts, are looking at post-poll scenarios -- on how to ensure the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi are not in the driver's seat.
While the top military brass won't talk to her at the moment -- directly or indirectly -- they would have no trouble negotiating with her after the election results are known, said a former military officer on condition of anonymity.
That is one of the reasons the speaker and acting chairman of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Shwe Mann, had to be sidelined now, because of the fear that his close relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi would threaten the ruling party's continued hold on power. As a former senior general in the army before the 2010 elections, Shwe Mann viewed by the military hierarchy as a traitor.
While Daw Suu must be taken into account in any post-election negotiations -- especially if she gains a significant proportion of seats -- much rests on her actions and attitude toward the army in the meantime as to whether she gets included or excluded. A more conciliatory approach to the army would not lessen her electoral popularity, but would give her a stronger hand in the fraught post-election dialogue.
The danger is that if she exceeds expectations and wins a majority in parliament -- or close to it -- the elite may be forced to take the "coup" option and follow the Thai model of democracy. Although Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has publicly declared that the army would respect the election results, other important leaders in government have told visiting diplomats that a "constitutional coup" could not be ruled out if things did not go their way. The more belligerent Aung San Suu Kyi appears toward the army, the more likely this scenario will materialise.
This too would be the worst possible outcome for businesses in Myanmar. Foreign investment and aid would dry up.
"Future foreign investment would disappear and many international organisations would withdraw their financial and technical support from Myanmar," said Professor Sean Turnell, an academic and expert on the Myanmar economy, based at Macquarie University in Australia.
"A crony-capitalist oligarchy will not be able to develop the country; prosperity in the 21st century will depend on a country's human capital, but this will not be realised in a state that prefers martial law over the creativity of a free people."