H2 prospects echo those of first half

H2 prospects echo those of first half

Second-half economic growth prospects are expected to be similar to those in the first half, as several downside risks are still affecting the recovery momentum, says the Bank of Thailand.

July's economic doldrums also added to signs the economy would stagger into the second half of the year.

"Variables [inducing] uncertainty include global economic factors, while exports are projected to remain subdued and private consumption could either be moderate or record a slight improvement," central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said.

"The assessment of [economic conditions in the second half] should be similar to previous periods since it is approaching year-end."

Prasarn: Thailand's fundamentals strong

He said although Thailand's fundamentals remained strong, global economic developments had experienced a slowdown, particularly with China's slowdown taking a toll on regional economies.

Uncertainty surrounding the timing of the US Federal Reserve's rate hike and geopolitical tensions are other external factors that warrant further monitoring, Mr Prasarn said.

The economy continued its deceleration in the second quarter, as increased public spending and tourism failed to completely offset weak domestic demand and exports, with future growth imperiled by China's devaluation of the yuan.

GDP grew 2.8% year-on year in the April-June period, down from the 3% expansion in the first quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board said.

Sequential GDP growth was up by 0.4% from the previous quarter, while growth was registered at 2.9% in the first half.

Last month's economic conditions are not anticipated to show an improvement from July due to tumbling oil prices denting the value of both oil-related exports and prices of agricultural products, said Don Nakornthab, the central bank's director of macroeconomic policy.

He said the bombings at the Ratchaprasong intersection and Sathon Pier had also added to the adverse effects on the tourism industry.

"The central bank is reassessing its economic forecast [for the second half] and will report to the Monetary Policy Committee in September," Mr Don added.

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