Plunging exports and inactive tourism after the August bombing in Bangkok have prompted business leaders to cut their economic growth projection again to 2.5-3% this year.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), a group of some of the nation's most powerful businessmen, has agreed to cut the projection from 3-3.5% made in the middle of this year, according to Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
The JSCCIB initially projected economic growth of 4-4.5%.
It later cut the projection in early December to 3.5-4%, citing delays in the government's budget disbursement and the slow pace of the global economic recovery.
Mr Isara said after the continued contraction of exports in the first eight months, Thailand's whole-year shipments are expected to see a contraction of 5%.
The Commerce Ministry reported in late September that shipments for the first eight months of 2015 totalled US$143 billion, down by 4.92% year-on-year.
Isara: Soft Chinese demand a key factor
Agricultural and agribusiness products for the period dropped by 6.5% year-on-year to $221 billion baht, while industrial goods fell by 3.2% to $112 billion.
Mr Isara said another key factor was soft demand in China due to the country's fragile economy, adding it was fortunate that the baht's weakness helped shore up shipments in baht terms to contract by only 4% in August.
He said private organisations expected the country's economic performance to slightly improve in the remaining months of 2015 thanks to the government's stimulus packages.
In the meantime, Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) said yesterday it was maintaining its 2.8% growth forecast for this year, citing the boon from the government's stimulus measures.
The forecast is based on the assumption that exports will drop 5% this year.
Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, K-Research's deputy managing director, said the research house predicted GDP growth for 2016 will come in the range of 2.5-3.5%.
However, the government's stimulus measures have not yet been taken into account as it wants to digest the soon-to-be-launched stimulus packages for the property sector and investments.
In a related development, a survey by K-Research found that household confidence in the economy over the next three months improved for a second straight month in September due largely to the stimulus measures to help rural people and small and medium-sized enterprises.
The expectation index in September stood at 46.5 points, a six-month high but still below the 50-point threshold that defines positive sentiment.
The index stood at 46 points in August, up from 45 in the previous month.
The confidence index is expected to continue creeping up this month after money from the government's economic stimulus measures has started to go directly to low-income earners in rural areas who have been hit by soft farm prices amid the stuttering economy, said Kangana Chockpisansin, K-Research's head of macroeconomic research.