Myanmar election still on track despite challenges

Myanmar election still on track despite challenges

Fears that Myanmar's landmark general election would be postponed have been allayed but experts warn there are sure to be several more bumps along the path to democracy.

Considered the first credible general elections for more than two decades, the Nov 8 polls were briefly cast into doubt by the Union Election Commission last Tuesday.

U Tin Aye, the UEC chairman, had floated the possibility of postponement in talks with some of the larger competing political parties. He was concerned that the impact of heavy flooding in some parts of the country, as well as regional security concerns in areas where ethnic conflict persists, could potentially impede the delivery of a credible election.

But after a huge social media backlash and strong resistance from political parties including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), the commission relented within hours and said the show would go on as planned.

"The UEC reviewed the opinions put forth by a number of political parties and has decided to go ahead with the election on Nov 8. There will be no delay," it said in a statement.

However, many people will still be unable to cast ballots on Nov 8 and the outcome of the vote could be called into question at a later date.

Voting will not take place in several townships in Shan, Kachin and Kayin states, where clashes continue between Myanmar's armed forces and ethnic armed groups, the signing of a landmark peace accord notwithstanding.

In fact, voting has been cancelled in more places than during the 2010 election, which the NLD boycotted. Some critics claim that as many as 20% of the country's voters will be denied a ballot. Negotiations for a more lasting peace deal could be undermined as a result, they say.

Significantly, many voters who would have been inclined to favour an ethnic party will not have the opportunity to do so, potentially reducing the number of coalition groups with which the NLD could form a majority in Parliament.

Win Htein, the chairman of the opposition party's central executive committee, accused the government of carrying out a premeditated plan once it became more evident that the NLD was the preferred party.

"In 2008, Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar and 140,000 people died," Win Htein told local reporters. "They still continued with a referendum on the constitution."

International observers say more scares and shake-ups can be expected, not just in the run-up to the elections but also in the coming months as a new government is formed.

However, the business community has little to fear from the political upheavals that could ensue, believes Edward Ratcliffe, a Yangon-based political analyst with the firm Vriens and Partners.

"As with the ouster of Shwe Mann from the chairmanship of the USDP, the recent uncertainty regarding the postponement of the election is another bump in the road to the polls on Nov 8," Mr Ratcliffe told Asia Focus.

"While there is little precedent for the upcoming election. Myanmar has got this far and should, we believe, muddle through."

In Augusts, a power struggle within the ruling United Solidarity and Development Party resulted in Shwe Mann -- who was also speaker of both the lower and upper houses -- being ousted as party chairman. He remains a USDP member and candidate but his business ties were certainly affected.

A domestic airline owned by Shwe Mann was forced to temporarily halt flights, some businesses linked to the former military strongman were temporarily shut and others experienced a flight by worried investors.

The shares of local tycoon Serge Pun's Yoma Strategic Holdings sank in Singapore as holders bailed out amid fears of a purge in Myanmar. The shares have since climbed back and are trading around 27.50 US cents each -- still about half their value prior to September.

Uncertainty about the election date lasted just half a day, too short a time for anyone to reach significantly.

"Both events were initially disquieting, but subsequently turned out to be milder than first feared. The [Shwe Mann] ouster did not develop into a purge, and the commission now says the election will proceed," Mr Ratcliffe said.

"Many foreign investors already in the market have a healthy appreciation of the political situation. Myanmar remains a frontier market in many respects and investors are approaching it with a long-term view."

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