While many Asians are seeking new ways to satisfy their appetites by moving away from rice-based staples toward wheat and potatoes, experts say demand for rice across the region will continue to swell.
Even with more Asian consumers making westernised meals and convenience foods part of their regular diet, rice demand is still rising in the region of 4.5 billion people, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
"Rice consumption is expected to be healthy, especially for Asian countries where rice is a traditional form of daily staple, and is not likely to be replaced by wheat products," said Emil Fazira Bte Kamari, a research analyst at Euromonitor International.
China, India and Vietnam are seeing higher growth in rice demand in line with population growth. Consumers in these emerging markets are also increasingly likely to prefer packaged instead of unpackaged rice, she said.
Samarendu Mohanty, head of the social sciences division at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), told Asia Focus from Manila that global average rice consumption per capita had not yet begun to decline and that Asia would continue to dominate the world as the largest rice consumer.
"We expect some diversification in Asian diets, but the demand for rice will continue to rise in line with population growth," he said.
The world consumes about 485 million tonnes of rice annually, and 90% of the consumption or about 440 million tonnes is in Asia. By 2035, the IRRI projected that an additional 116 million tonnes will be added to global demand.
"It's not the demand side that we should be concerned about. It's going to be the supply side," Mr Mohanty added.
Vichai Sriprasert, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), agreed saying that the industry would continue to grow and rice would remain the main staple in Asia.
The shift toward higher wheat, meat and dairy consumption is a typical scenario for rice-eating countries to as they become wealthier, a trend that can be observed globally.
"Rice will still continue to be popular among Asians; however, rice eaters are becoming more conscious about the quality of rice they consume," said Mr Vichai. "Consumers will opt for better quality rice even if they have to spend more."
The Rice Knowledge Bank suggested that good quality rice should have the right moisture content at 14%, with high purity. Other characteristics include uniformly mature kernels, uniform size and shape, and no contaminants.
"While rice consumption per person in Japan and South Korea has gone down roughly 50% compared to how it was 40-50 years ago, a similar trend is not going to happen yet in Southeast Asia, at least for the next decade," Mr Vichai said.
Mr Mohanty added that rice had also become increasingly popular everywhere else in the world. Consumption outside of Asia, although accounting for only 10%, has been growing over the past years and continues to rise.
Africa is the fastest growth market as rice has a more appealing taste than the traditional staples such as maize and cassava and is much more convenient to prepare.
"In Africa, they see rice as a luxury item and as people become richer, we would expect to see much higher demand from this region," he added.
Between 2010 and 2012, FAO statistics show that the world's top importers of rice were Nigeria at 2.1 million tonnes a year, followed by Indonesia (1.7 million), China (1.5 million) and the Philippines (1.3 million).
FUTURE OF FARMING
David Dawe, a senior economist with the agricultural development economics division of the FAO, explained that strong economic growth in Asia had encouraged many Asian farmers to leave the farming business.
"Given the rise in population and global food demand, farming will always be inevitable; however, agricultural practices will become less labour-intensive with greater integration of technologies," he said.
Mr Mohanty said that rice farming in Asia was still dominated by millions of small farmers with an average land holding of 1 hectare. Farming on such a small scale results in very low earnings per crop. But outmigration by some farmers has led to more land consolidation, which allows those who remain to acquire more land.
In addition, the labour-intensive nature of farming is gradually changing as farmers are exploring new methods to increase productivity in terms of land preparation, transplanting, harvesting and threshing. The cost of labour, which accounts for about 45% of the total cost of conventional farm production, is expected to go down as a result.
"The direction of rice farming in Asia will be toward modernisation and commercialisation and it will be integrated along the supply chain," said Mr Mohanty.
Smallholder farmers in Asia are adopting small-scale mechanisation and renting machinery when needed. This is because many women and young people are no longer available to help with farm chores as they find it more attractive to do other kinds of work, he said.
Competition among rice exporters has also intensified. "India, for example, overtook Thai imports into Singapore in 2014, and with Thailand's droughts and irregular output, Indian rice may retain its popularity in rice-importing countries," added Ms Kamari of Euromonitor.
Statistics from World's Top Exports (WTEx) showed that global rice exports last year were worth US$24.9 billion, an increase of 22.7% since 2010. Asian countries supplied 74.6% of all export volume in 2014 and had the highest dollar value at $18.6 billion.
Since 2010, Cambodia has been the fastest growing rice exporter, expanding by 750.7% from a low base, followed by Australia (545.1%), India (244.4%) and Brazil (151.8%).
For Thailand to remain competitive, Mr Vichai said, the country needed to develop better irrigation systems for paddy farmers and integrate more technologies into agricultural practices.
"It's the only way we can remain competitive. Water is our main issue and we need more investment in water management systems. This will ultimately improve the quality of Thai rice while lowering the cost of production," he added.
DIVERSIFIED DIETS
While rice consumption globally is still on the rise, per capita consumption has fallen significantly in some Asian countries where baked goods, potatoes and noodles are gaining in popularity amid the proliferation of Westernised cuisines.
"This has affected consumer preferences and is causing them to switch to wheat consumption like noodles. With millennials largely having strong purchasing power, they are also encouraged by the availability of healthier varieties," said Ms Kamari.
Noodles and pasta are two types of staple food products that are attracting more Asian consumers. For example, in Thailand, the growth of rice consumption in 2015 slowed compared with 2014, while pasta and noodles showed the opposite trend.
According to the World Instant Noodles Association, global noodle consumption stood at 102.7 billion servings (packets and cups) in 2014. Among the world's 15 biggest consumers of instant noodles, 11 are in Asia.
China and Hong Kong consumed 44.4 million servings last year, followed by Indonesia (13.4 million), Japan (5.5 million), India (5.3 million), Vietnam (5 million) and South Korea (3.5 million)
Potatoes, the third most popular food crop after rice and wheat, are also gaining in popularity in the Asia, according to the Dutch potato organisation Nederlandse Aardappel Organisatie (NAO).
"Asians are increasingly including potatoes in their eating habits amid the proliferation of westernised restaurant chains," said Karst Weening, a policy adviser to the NAO.
"There is an upward trend in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment, which means increased consumption of processed potato products," he said.
China and India are the two largest potato producers in the world where almost a third of all potatoes are harvested; however, total potato consumption in Asian countries is still relatively small compared to other parts of the world.
"China and India constitute only about 2-4% of total potato consumption," said Mr Weening.
The latest FAO statistics show that China produced 85.9 million tonnes of potatoes in 2012, followed by India (45 million), Russia (29.5 million), Ukraine (23.3 million) and the United States (19.2 million).
Potato exports from China also rose significantly last year. Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam are among the biggest importers of Chinese potatoes.
The Chinese government is looking to make potatoes play a bigger role as a daily staple for its population given that rice and wheat have become more difficult to grow during periods of drought.
"In countries like China and India, potato production is being heavily promoted. This is partly related to the environment. The water used in the cultivation of potatoes is significantly lower compared to rice, the biggest competitor to potatoes in Asia," added Jan Gottschall of the NAO.
INFLUENCING FACTORS
Mr Dawe suggested that the common theme is that as people become wealthier, they want to vary their diets. Southeast Asia is a rice-eating region so therefore the diversification is running toward wheat.
"The main drivers for the diversification are income and age. It's the rich and the young who consume more wheat products than the poor and the old," he said.
Even for a comparable level of income, he said, younger people seem to diversify their diets more quickly as they are more globalised and interested in the latest trends, whereas the older generations prefer to eat what they always eat.
The price of rice is another factor that is influencing the shift away from rice consumption. In Southeast Asia, rice prices are relatively low in Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, but higher in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to reflect import costs.
"When the price of rice goes up in these countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines), it induces people to eat more wheat-based products such as bread or noodles," said Mr Dawe.
The governments in these countries have been trying to promote self-sufficiency in rice by imposing restrictions on rice imports, as they prefer not to rely solely on the instability of the global rice market.
In South Korea, meanwhile, consumers are opting for healthier alternatives with multigrain and premium whole-wheat bread seen as major drivers for retail value growth, noted Ms Kamari of Euromonitor.
SPC Group, South Korea's leading bakery chain, reported that the country consumed about $5.37 billion worth of baked products last year.
In emerging markets such as the Philippines, convenience and value for money are the key factors that influence people to shift away from rice consumption.
"Unpackaged baked goods like artisanal breads, cakes and pastries are becoming more significant in emerging markets due to dynamic new product developments," she said, adding that consumers were also more willing to spend on the fresher quality of artisanal baked goods compared to packaged foods.
