Exports down 5.78% in 2015

Exports down 5.78% in 2015

Poor December puts showing at 6-year low

Exports fell more than expected in 2015, declining by 5.78%, their biggest drop in six years.

The poor performance is being blamed on the slow pace of the global economic recovery and falling oil prices.

The Commerce Ministry said \Wednesday that Thailand's exports fell for the third straight year, with export value totalling US$214 billion last year, the biggest decline since the US debt crisis sent Thai exports tumbling 14.3% in 2009.

Thai shipments fell by 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014 against rises of 2.93% in 2012, 15.2% in 2011 and 26.8% in 2010.

Imports totalled $203 billion in 2015, down by 11% and giving Thailand a trade surplus of $11.7 billion.

Somkiat Triratpan, director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, said low oil prices and the slow pace of the global recovery remained major factors affecting the performance of Thai shipments last year.

The Commerce Ministry late last month said full-year shipments might fall by 5.5% in 2015 instead of the 3% contraction predicted earlier after reporting that exports plunged for an 11th straight month in November.

For the first 11 months, shipment value fell by 5.51% year-on-year to $197 billion.

The ministry said exports last month fell by 8.73% year-on-year to a value of $17.1 billion.

Imports totalled $15.6 billion, down 9.23%, leading Thailand to gain a  trade surplus of $1.48 billion for December.

December exports of agricultural and agribusiness products fell by 9.8% year-on-year to $2.84 billion, driven by lower shipments of rubber (-25.2.%), rice (-22.5%), frozen, processed and canned seafood (-10.9%) and tapioca products (-25.2%).

Exports of industrial products fell by 6.7% to $13.3 billion, led by weakness in oil-related products such as finished oil, chemicals and plastic pellets.

The Commerce Ministry said exports fell for almost markets except for those to the US, Australia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

Shipments to the four neighbouring countries showed continued strong growth of 7.7% last year, with those to Australia rising 5.3% and US shipments edging up 0.7% for the 12 months.

Officials blame weak foreign economies and falling oil prices for their failure to boost exports for the past year. (Post Today photo)

The government has set an export growth target of 5% to $225 billion this year, an average of $18.8 billion a month, banking on a global recovery, stimulus measures and development of special economic zones.

Good prospects are anticipated for automotive and parts, gems and jewellery, frozen and processed chicken, electronics, appliances, construction materials, machinery and parts, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, gifts and souvenirs, and home furnishings and decor.

Other sectors such as spa and healthcare services, entertainment, transport and logistics, education, hospitals and construction are tipped to boost export growth in the year ahead.

The government is upbeat about shipments to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam as well as Australia, India, China, the US and the EU.

Lower shipments are expected for Japan, the Middle East and Africa.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said last month's 8.73% fall was much worse than expected.

Bearish Christmas sales are also expected to affect the performance of Thai exports in this year's first quarter, he said.

"Thai exports in January this year are thus expected to stay flat or see a slight contraction," Mr Vallop said.

The TNSC forecasts 2016 export growth of 2%, topping out at roughly $219 billion or an average of $18.3 billion a month. Risk factors include the slow global recovery, foreign exchange volatility, widening international conflicts and natural disasters.

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