Exports could contract by 0.2% this year without help from further stimulus measures by the government, shippers warn.
Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said some exporters feel shipments may see only flat growth or a decline of 0.2% this year, as opposed to the government economic team's ambitious 5% target.
"If the government still comes up with traditional measures, and no new export stimulus measures are introduced, we expect Thailand's export sector to remain tepid this year," he said.
According to Mr Nopporn, it would be worrisome if shipments remained in the red for another year in 2016, which would bode poorly for Thailand's competitiveness.
The situation will worsen once the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal takes effect, he said. The new trade bloc may lead Thailand's customers to move to neighbouring countries that sign on to the TPP.
"The Thai government has yet come up with any official statement about whether to join the TPP or to come up with remedial measures caused by its impact," Mr Nopporn said. "Most importantly, this government is unlikely to do many things, as it has only about one more year in office."
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently gave assurances that a general election would be held in mid-2017 even if the draft constitution were shot down in a referendum.
He insisted the general election would go ahead under the government's 20-month roadmap, regardless of the referendum's outcome.
The Commerce Ministry reported last month that exports, which contribute about 70% of the country's GDP, fell by 5.78% in 2015, their biggest drop since the US debt crisis sent shipments tumbling 14.3% in 2009.
The poor performance was blamed on the slow pace of the global economic recovery and falling oil prices.
Exports fell for a third straight year in 2015, with export value totalling US$214 billion.
Shipments fell by 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014 against rises of 2.93% in 2012, 15.2% in 2011 and 26.8% in 2010.
Imports totalled $203 billion in 2015, down 11%, good for a trade surplus of $11.7 billion.
The government has set an export growth target of 5% to $225 billion this year, an average of $18.8 billion a month, banking on a global recovery, stimulus measures and development of special economic zones.