Exports grew in February for the first time in 14 months, thanks to two unusual items -- helicopters and an eight-fold increase from a month earlier in gold shipments.
In February, customs-cleared exports rose 10.27% from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday. A Reuters poll projected a drop of 7.65% following January's decline of 8.91%.
Imports plunged 16.82%, nearly double the slide seen in a Reuters poll and an indication that exports — traditionally a growth driver — remain weak, in spite of the reported February rise. Many imported items are parts assembled into finished goods and shipped out.
Pushing up February exports, in the government data, were helicopters and vehicles for military drills (US$683 million) and gold of $1.89 billion, compared with $237 million in January. Those two items accounted for nearly 14% of total exports of $18.99 billion.
Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said that when helicopters, vehicles gold are excluded, "normal trade (exports) was down 2%" from a year earlier.
Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, an economist with Kasikorn Research Center, said the data reflects one-off gains.
"Exports may contract for another 2-3 months before turning positive in the second half when commodity prices should start to recover," she said.
Sluggish domestic demand
Exports, equal to more than 60% of output, have long been weak, one reason why the government has struggled to revive Southeast Asia's second-largest economy after taking power in May 2014. Domestic demand, another growth driver, has also been sluggish
On Monday, Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong said preliminary data showed exports rose 10% in February from a year earlier, due mainly to gold shipments.
Exports have contracted the past three years, with shipments in 2015 down 5.78%, the biggest annual pace of fall in six years.
The Bank of Thailand expects another contraction this year, a factor in its cutting its 2016 economic growth forecast on Wednesday to 3.1% from 3.5%. The central bank said exports would shrink 2%, rather than be flat.
In February, exports to China fell 7.6% from a year earlier, while those to Europe rose 4.1%.
Ministry of Commerce