Despite an unexpected rise in February, shipments are expected to contract by more than 5% in the first quarter, say exporters.
Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), which represents exporters, said yesterday the world's economic and political conditions remain highly uncertain and unpredictable, putting further pressure on export prospects.
"Exports posted a contraction of 8.91% year-on-year in January. In February, the figures surged 10.27%, but once special items such as gold and hardware for military exercises were excluded, the shipments saw a contraction of 3.75%," he said. "We expect shipments to further shrink by at least 5% this month, leading to a contraction of as much as 5.86% in the first quarter, higher than the 4.5-5% contraction earlier projected by the council."
The Commerce Ministry said last week that exports posted an unexpected rise in February, growing for the first time in 14 months, driven mainly by gold and special items of hardware for military exercises.
Shipments rose 10.3% year-on-year to US$19 billion compared with a fall of 8.91% to $15.7 billion in January.
It was the first rise since December 2014 and the biggest since January 2013.
Imports, however, dropped more than expected, falling 16.8% to $14 billion compared with a decrease of 12.4% to $15.5 billion in January. This led to a trade surplus of $4.98 billion in February.
For the first two months, shipments edged up 0.67% from the same period last year to $34.7 billion, while imports totalled $29.5 billion, a fall of 14.5%. Thailand had a trade surplus of $5.22 billion for the period.
Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said the rise in exports was mainly because of two unusual items: gold and military hardware, including helicopters and vehicles for military drills.
The Customs Department included helicopters and vehicles worth $683 million, which were imported and used for military drills, and then reshipped back, in the export figures. Gold shipments amounted to $1.89 billion, skyrocketing by 1,051% from the same month last year.
Military hardware and gold accounted for nearly 14% of exports. Excluding the two items, exports fell 2% in February from a year earlier.
While the Commerce Ministry is maintaining its export growth target of 5% this year, the TNSC is more pessimistic, predicting exports will see 0-2% growth.
Mr Nopporn said exporters are concerned about exports to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam after shipments to those countries contracted by 5.8% in February against 1.2% growth in January.