Provincial economies are expected to remain lacklustre in the first half of the year, thanks to a spate of negative factors including low farm prices, widespread drought and the overall tepid economy.
Jit Siratranont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) for Phetchaburi, said the farm sector's income right now was relatively poor, with rice production falling due to the drought. Farm prices, in addition, have not risen, worsening farmers' purchasing power.
"The overall economic conditions in the Central region have yet to recover in the first quarter although local businesses had projected the regional economy should start getting better early in the year," he said.
"The number of tourist arrivals in the Central region may increase in the first quarter, but we've found that their spending has not increased accordingly as indicated by sales of various retailers, which fell 20-30% during the period."
Mr Jit said businesses were now pinning their hopes on the government's stimulus measures.
The cabinet on March 29 gave the nod to stimulus measures including a tax deduction of up to 15,000 baht for individual taxpayers who dine at restaurants that issue tax invoices during the allotted time.
On the same day, the cabinet also approved the renewal of tourism stimulus measures that include a 15,000-baht tax break on domestic tour packages and hotel accommodation for individual taxpayers, as well as for businesses and private individuals who provide training programmes for employees.
The measures, which initially expired on Dec 31 further allowed corporations to deduct up to 200% of expenses for the training programmes.
The extension will run until Dec 31 this year and become effective retroactively from Jan 1.
The tax measures are meant to entice people to spend money at home during the long public holiday rather than travelling abroad to help stimulate what has been a languid economic recovery.
Spending during the Songkran festival is expected to hit a three-year high thanks to the long holiday and government stimulus measures, including the tax deduction of up to 15,000 baht for dining expenses from April 9-17.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimated Songkran spending to rise by 4.51% this year to 125 billion baht, up from 119 billion baht in 2015, 117 billion in 2014 and 114 billion in 2013.
Mr Jit said while export prospects remained poor and tourism revenue was unlikely to increase significantly as expected, the private sector also hoped government spending would help shore up the overall economic conditions this year.
"However, we have to admit that government spending may hit a snag thanks to the slow bureaucratic system," he said.
According to the National Economic and Social Development Board, the Central region contributed 5.79% of GDP, with Bangkok and its vicinities (Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan and Samut Sakhon) accounting for the lion's share of 44.3%.
The North contributed 8.79% of GDP, the East 18%, the Northeast 10.9%, the South 8.63% and the West 3.53%.