The government's planning unit is set to cut its economic growth forecast due in part to the weaker-than-expected global economic recovery.
Another factor leading to the adjusted outlook is Thailand's export prospects, which remain in the doldrums, said Porametee Vimolsiri, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).
The cut will be announced on May 16.
The Commerce Ministry reported on Feb 25 that exports posted an unexpected rise in February, growing for the first time in 14 months.
Shipments rose 10.3% year-on-year to US$19 billion compared with a fall of 8.91% to $15.7 billion in January.
It was the first rise since December 2014 and the biggest since January 2013.
Imports, in turn, dropped more than expected, falling 16.8% to $14 billion compared with a decrease of 12.4% to $15.5 billion in January. This led to a trade surplus of $4.98 billion in February. The bump in exports, however, was due mainly to two unusual items: gold and military hardware.
The Customs Department included helicopters and vehicles worth $683 million which were imported, used for military drills and then shipped back, in the export figures. Gold shipments, meanwhile, totaled $1.89 billion, skyrocketing by 1,051% from the same month last year.
Excluding gold and military hardware, which accounted for 14% of the total, exports actually fell 2% in February from a year earlier.
With the global economy fragile, oil prices falling and exports yet to recover, on Feb 15 the NESDB cut its estimate for 2016 exports to 1.2% growth, down from its previous forecast of 3% following a 5.6% contraction in 2015.
It also cut its growth forecast for this year to between 2.8% and 3.8%, down from an earlier forecast of 3-4%.
"We foresee the country's economic growth may be less than 3.3%, but the rate is unlikely to be lower than 2.8% this year," Mr Porametee said.
He noted that China's economic slowdown is a vital factor affecting both the global economy and Thailand.
The drought is expected to have a slight impact on the economy, with the NESDB estimating its effects at 60 billion baht or about 0.4% to GDP.
Mr Porametee said the tourism sector would play a vital role in the recovery, with foreign visitors growing by 7% in Jan and 15 % in Feb. Infrastructure projects are likely to start contributing to the economy in the latter half of this year.