Two-year report: Could do better

Two-year report: Could do better

Business community is appreciative of quick reforms but calls for more than stimulus measures and infrastructure, write Post reporters

Two years on, many tasks remain as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha seeks to return happiness to the country. THITI WANNAMONTHA
Two years on, many tasks remain as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha seeks to return happiness to the country. THITI WANNAMONTHA

After setting up the National Council for Peace and Order on May 23, 2014, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha announced an ambitious mission: to "return happiness to the country" through economic, social and political reforms.

Two years on from the coup, a return to civilian rule is unlikely any time soon. But the economic reforms put in place by the junta have begun to bear fruit.

As it enters its third year, Thailand's military government has set a target of 3% GDP growth amid numerous unfavourable domestic and global factors. Whether the goal is achievable is the defining question.

The Bangkok Post asked several key economic players, including the finance minister, academics and business leaders, to share their views on the challenges that lie ahead and what should be done first.

Finance Minister

The biggest challenge facing the incumbent government is laying down an economic foundation to secure sustainable growth, said Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong.

Thailand has long lacked infrastructure investment because of internal problems, he said, and this undermines the country's long-term efficiency and plagues productivity to the point that Thai businesses cannot compete with others.

Given the reality of globalisation, the country's eroding competitiveness means Thai exports have lost their edge.

"We need to take this opportunity to transform the economy by pushing investment in sectors in which the country can compete," Mr Apisak said.

The government has stepped up efforts to push 10 targeted industrial clusters and create an S-shaped economic recovery.

The 10 clusters are divided into existing industry (First S-Curve) and future industry (New S-Curve).

The First S-Curve comprises five industrial clusters: next-generation automotive, smart electronics, quality tourism, agriculture/biotechnology and food processing.

The New S-Curve consists of robotics, aviation/logistics, biofuels/biochemicals, a digital economy and a becoming medical hub.

Mr Apisak said Thailand has potential in robotics because the country is home to a number of carmakers that use robots in production.

Tax evasion is another pressing area the state has addressed by outlining solutions such as the single financial account scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and adoption of e-payment.

Tax reform will pave the way for a solid foundation, he said, adding the government has already cemented a 20% corporate income tax rate and restructured the personal income brackets.

A tax on assets such as land and buildings is the government's next step. "We will design a tax structure to create fairness for all people, especially those with low income," said Mr Apisak.

The government will provide assistance to increase the income of low-earners, but such help will not last forever. The goal is to create the conditions to enable people to escape poverty.

He said Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak is pushing the Pracha Rat (People's State) initiative to help low-income people.

Thailand Development Research Institute

Human resource development and bureaucratic reform are the main challenges for the country's economic progress as it meanders into a third year of military rule, according to an academic.

It is difficult for Thailand to achieve annual GDP growth of 5-6% in the medium term because there has been no significant investment after 2000, said Nipon Poapongsakorn, the Thailand Development Research Institute's distinguished fellow.

"The incumbent government has been trying to generate public investment, but the progress is rather slow and the investment direction remains uncertain," he said.

"No government has made an attempt to invest in human capital because the result is not yielded in the short run and there is no political gain in doing so."

Despite the Education Ministry's huge budget allocation, it is mostly for teachers' salary. Little thought is given to research and development and improvement of skilled labour, both of which are considered the core mandate of human resource development, said Mr Nipon.

Thailand's ageing population is also a concern as the capable workforce continues to diminish, which is one reason prompting foreign investors to relocate their production bases into neighbouring countries such as Vietnam, he said.

"The government has only been attracting foreign investment through tax exemptions and offering low-interest loans, but foreign investors will only invest here if laws help the ease of doing business and skilled labour, researchers, and analysts are widely available," said Mr Nipon.

The country seems to be relying excessively on building transport infrastructures and road expansion without addressing challenges related to human resource development and bureaucratic regulations that do not foster business creation, he said.

Mr Nipon stressed although it is not wrong to implement short-term measures to stimulate the economy, he would like the government to focus on human resource development, bureaucratic reform and decentralisation of state power.

As the government remains reluctant to increase the value-added tax since such a move could spark public outcry, the consumption tax must be raised gradually to support social security programmes such as the low-cost healthcare scheme and national provident fund, he said.

The land and buildings tax should raise tax revenue and effectively help develop rural areas as well as disburse the state budget into the countryside to a greater extent, said Mr Nipon.

The government has overlooked rural development and there is a need for this to enable greater decentralisation of state power and improve rural folks' capabilities, he said. Bangkok and Chiang Mai are examples of centralised development perpetuating unequal distribution of wealth and urbanisation, said Mr Nipon.

"There will be a business-as-usual style of development if Thailand continues to focus on short-term gains. The country needs something new in terms of human capital and rural development, with the elimination of bureaucratic regulations that do not attract foreign direct investment," he said.

Thailand could become the "sick man of Southeast Asia" if domestic politics continues to alternate between military coups and populist democracy, said Mr Nipon.

"The military government has merely listened to people's opinions, with state policies being centralised and disseminated across Thailand," he said.

Thai National Shippers' Council

Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the business sector is satisfied with government policy and performance, especially in terms of bringing back law and order that could increase investor confidence.

Measures to upgrade the standard of Thai fisheries are another positive as the government tries to have Thailand removed from the European Union's watch list for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing (IUU), he said.

"If it was an elected civilian government, this IUU issue would take a much longer time to solve as any action would need to pass through a deliberate process. However, the military used its power to tackle the problem immediately. Although the problem has not been solved, at least we can see some concrete progress," said Mr Nopporn.

He said another policy that has had a positive impact on the economy is the stimulus plan that increased the purchasing power of low-income people.

However, Mr Nopporn hoped the government would modernise some laws and regulations to be more flexible and facilitate trade and investment.

"The government and the private sector should work together in driving the Thai economy forward. We haven't seen that cooperation and new laws and regulations should take this issue into account," he said.

Another issue of concern is Thailand's image, which has been hurt by other countries, especially the US and EU, said Mr Nopporn. These countries are suspicious of a government formed by a coup and their allegations over the IUU issue have also had an impact.

As a result, it is urgent for the government to clean up its image and make Thailand accepted by the world community, he said.

"The international community does not understand Thailand very well and we think the Thai government lacks an appropriate way to communicate with them. The government should have more proactive measures to communicate with the world," said Mr Nopporn.

Federation of Thai Industries

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the military government was clear in wanting to help restore the country's economy and investment as well as to strengthen Thailand in other aspects, including supporting SMEs and exports.

"We all know the weak global economic outlook had a negative impact on the Thai economy. However, the government's policy to support investment and major stimulus packages have helped prevent the Thai economy from plunging further and we appreciate that," he said.

Other supportive policies include the tax measures and investment privileges that helped attract new investment, said Mr Vallop.

He said current measures tend to be implemented quicker compared with a civilian government, allowing investors to start their projects earlier.

The government is always receptive to ideas proposed by the private sector, which helps smooth cooperation between the two sides, said Mr Vallop.

The next challenge for the government is to reform several projects, curbing disruptions and obstacles before Thailand returns to an elected government, which will operate slower than the military government, he said.

"The current 20-year strategy of this government will have a strong impact on the Thai economy and Thai society in the long run. We expect a new civilian government to continue the plan, keeping Thailand on the right track," said Mr Vallop.

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