Tough choices

Tough choices

Philippines among the countries wondering whether joining the TPP is in the best interests of its small businesses and farmers.

Asean will continue to work together as an economic community while the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in which all 10 members are taking part, should be pushed forward along with other regional trade agreements, says a senior Asean diplomat.

While the US-backed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has drawn interest from many countries in Southeast Asia, the China-led RCEP should also be the focus of Asean members, said Esteban Conejos, the Philippine ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Four Asean members -- Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei -- are part of the TPP, which was concluded in October 2015 and signed by 12 Pacific Rim countries early this year. Ratification is still required by each country's legislature.

The RCEP, for which negotiations began in 2013, comprises the 10 Asean members plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The TPP, one of the world's biggest regional trade deals covering 40% of the global economy, is believed by some to have divided Asean members and overshadowed the official formation of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) at the end of last year, but Mr Conejos says that is overstating the case.

"I don't think it causes division in Asean," he told a group of Asean journalists at the WTO headquarters in Geneva recently. "Asean just began integration and we will continue to work together as a community."

Work on the RCEP, meanwhile, continues in the background with the latest round of negotiations taking place in Perth late last month. The 13th round of talks is scheduled for Auckland from June 12-18.

The RCEP member countries account for 50% of the world population. Their gross domestic product (GDP), trade volume and FDI utilisation are about one third of the world total.

The TPP, meanwhile, is a very important trade agreement that the Philippines will definitely study the possibility of joining, said Mr Conejos. Ministers last July said the country would definitely take part but now the final decision will rest with the new government following the general election earlier this month, he said.

It will take two years for the Philippines, a close ally of the US, to study the TPP. Indonesia and South Korea are also looking to take part. But even in the US, the successful ratification of the TPP is not a sure thing, and it has become a contentious issue during the presidential election campaign.

"It is a very significant agreement. Nobody in our region can simply ignore this fundamental reason," said Mr Conejos. "The Philippines has had several sessions already with other Asean members to try to walk us through the agreement and what the implications could be for us.

"We are intensively studying the proposal and the decision will be made by the next administration."

US President Barack Obama aims to finalise the TPP before he leaves office on Jan 20, but he needs to overcome strong anti-free trade sentiment from both the left wing of his own Democratic Party as well as from the right flank of the Republican Party.

"We are going to find out whether the Americans are going to ratify [the TPP]. Renegotiation is not allowed … either you accept or you don't. Let's see if they will ratify it," said Mr Conejos.

For the Philippines, he agrees with critics that the country should be cautious about the TPP for the sake of its small businesses and farmers.

Micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are vital for the global economy, he said. Statistics show that 90% of businesses worldwide are micro and small and they account for 70% of all employment. The WTO has realised the important roles micro and small enterprises play and many developing countries have programmes for supporting these enterprises.

"We made the proposal on how to streamline procedures and facilitate these enterprises. Hopefully they will come up with more focused and targeted results on this issues," said Mr Conejos.

"The TPP is the gold standard. You can't not raise the issue of SSM (special safeguard measures) anymore. You cannot not fight for your small farmers.

"The export sector of the Philippines will be happy because [the TPP] will open up the market for them but what will happen to the other side? Once you join, be prepared to open up your market. Put up a safety net for them. There are so many things to look at, not just your export interests."

With millions of small farmers, the Philippines exports a wide range of food, vegetables and processed meats. The country is a member of all three major agricultural groupings: the Cairns Group, the G20 and G33. The Cairns Group comprises 20 agricultural exporting countries, seeking to liberalise global trade in agricultural products. Its focus is on abolishing export subsidies and trade-distorting domestic supports for agricultural products while improving market access for agricultural exports.

The G20 consists of agricultural exporting countries trying to reduce if not completely eliminate all subsidies, while the G33 consists of developing countries that coordinate on trade and economic issues. The latter has proposed special rules for developing nations at WTO negotiations, such as allowing them to continue to restrict access to their agricultural markets.

"All of these three have an interest in agriculture. It's a common bond that brings us together. Love for agriculture is the uniting factor but the focuses are different," said the ambassador. "The G33 is infamous for having defensive interests. We look after our small farmers, (who are) poor and not systemised. We try to promote our exports but at the same time protect farmers at home."

In the WTO, developed countries tend to have the most influence, but smaller countries such as the Philippines have ways to make their position known by bonding together, he added.

As the country's key interest is agriculture, Mr Conejos also stressed the importance of multilateral trade negotiations carried out under the WTO even as regional trade agreements proliferate.

"I'm worried because if you are not engaged in the WTO, people will start engaging outside the WTO. That's why we have the TPP, the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), bilateral and other trade agreements," he said.

"Free-trade agreements promote trade but the important thing to remember is that there are issues that are only addressed in the multilateral setting like the WTO. One of those is our issue, which is agriculture. How can you address domestic supports and export subsidies in a bilateral setting? No way," he said.

"If [some trade rules] get critical mass outside [the WTO], we will have no choice but to go along. Taking this issue away from the multilateral system, we have to think seriously about the consequences."

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