Thai shippers say exports face decline for a fourth straight year if signs of a global economic recovery fail to surface by this month.
Exports fell by 8% year-on-year in April to US$15.54 billion, the lowest in six years, leading export performance in the first four months to shrink by 1.24%.
Exporters blame the decline on gloom in big economies like Japan, China and the EU.
The US Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged reflects the fragile state of the global recovery, said Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC).
"If there is no improvement in the month ahead, our exports may suffer a contraction of 2% in the second quarter," he said at the group's annual press conference yesterday.
But Mr Nopporn said the council would stick to its target range of a flat reading to 2% growth this year, pinning hopes on significant improvements in the third and fourth quarters -- especially from the US, as the Fed may decide to raise rates in June.
Fuel and commodities prices are also on the rise, which could spur the economy in some sectors, Mr Nopporn said.
The volatile baht remains a worrying factor for exporters this year, he said. He expects the baht to move in a range of 34 to 36.50 to the US dollar in 2016.
In the event that the world economy does not fully recover, and Thailand's shipments generate monthly revenue averaging $18,016 from May to December, full-year exports could see a contraction of 0.41%.
Wallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of the TNSC, voiced his concerns over falling farm shipments despite a rise in rice exports in April.
Shipments of tapioca products remain low, while sugar exports have steadied.
Thai rice exports in the first four months rose to 3.55 million tonnes with a value of 54.9 billion baht, up 26% and 16% respectively.
China, Benin and Indonesia were major buyers, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Meanwhile, the National Rice Policy and Management Committee yesterday approved the sale of 780,000 tonnes of rice from government supplies to 23 bidders, placing the value at 7 billion baht.
A total of 31 buyers joined the bid on May 19 and 23 of them were qualified, said Duangporn Rodphaya, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department.
She said that from May 22, 2014 to May 29 of this year, the government sold a total of 5.48 million tonnes rice, valued at 58.3 billion baht, via 13 bids for industrial use.