Spending during festival likely to fall 3% from 2008

Thai consumers are expected to spend about 3% less during the coming Chinese New Year festival than they did last year, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

A UTCC survey estimates spending starting from Saturday at 34.74 billion baht, down 3.1% from a year earlier. The Year of the Ox begins on Monday.

Most of the spending would be from salaries and regular income, according to the survey of 1,216 people taken from Jan 13-17, said Yajai Chuvicha, a researcher at the university.

Some people are reluctant to spend this lunar year due to the poor economy and rising goods prices, but those with disposable cash will spend their money on luxury goods, followed by travel and cash gifts (ang pao).

The main factors worrying celebrants include rising goods prices, fire and road accidents, the survey found.

Most respondents also believed the new government will help improve the economy which by the third quarter, and they hope it will make rising goods prices its priority.

In separate UTCC poll, a majority of respondents were moderately satisfied with the government's recently announced economic stimulus package and tax breaks.

However, most said they were not yet certain how effective the measures would be.

The university is now forecasting economic growth for the year of between 2% and 2.5% as a result of government efforts, up from an earlier forecast of only 0.2%.