The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects Chinese tourist arrivals during China's week-long National Day holidays to fall 21% below target due to the recent zero-dollar tour crackdown.
Thailand expects to welcome 220,000 Chinese tourists during the golden week of Oct 1-9, missing an earlier target of 280,000. That figure, however, will be 30.4% higher than the 168,705 Chinese visitors who came during the same period last year.
Chinese tourists will generate 7.88 billion baht in revenue during the golden week, up nearly 40% from 5.63 billion in the same period last year.
"The lower-than-expected Chinese tourist arrivals will make Thailand lose income opportunities of around 2.1 billion baht for the week," said TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn.
He admitted that the serious crackdown on zero-dollar tour operations and unclear measures to deal with Chinese visitors who come on tour packages will cause arrival numbers to drop.
Early last month, the Anti-Money Laundering Office confiscated more than 2,000 coaches and over 4.7 billion baht in cash from OA Transport Co in Lat Krabang district. It was reportedly the country's largest zero-dollar tour network.
The government is still working on practical measures for tour agents providing legal tour package services to Chinese tourists.
The Tourism and Sports Ministry recently proposed a minimum tour package price of 1,000 baht per day per head to the China National Tourism Administration. That minimum price should cover basic costs for tour operators.
According to a survey by the Tourism Department, Chinese tourists, on average, would stay five days in Thailand, spending 1,000 baht per day on accommodation, food and transportation.
Mr Yuthasak also predicts that if the zero-dollar tour issue remains unresolved, Chinese tourist arrivals in the last four months of this year will fall by 20%.
If his prediction proves true, total Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand will reach 9.35 million for the whole year, missing the 10.13 million target.
That figure, however, would still be 17% higher compared with last year.