San Francisco/Seattle: The release of Microsoft Corp's new Windows 10 operating system yesterday — an event that in years past sparked a surge of computer buying — will do little to ease the four-year sales slump that's been dogging the PC industry.
Component makers from Micron Technology Inc to Intel Corp aren't factoring in a jump in demand in their forecasts, and there are few signs of consumer excitement for new PCs around the release.
That's in stark contrast to the lines 20 years ago at computer shops for Windows 95, which drove a 23% rise in PC sales in its first year, or even more recent versions such as Windows 7 that pushed users to upgrade their hardware.
This time around, on the eve of the Windows 10 release, the consumer-gadget market has long since shifted away from Microsoft. As more people use mobile devices, much of the storage and data crunching that once happened in desktops and laptops is now being handled by programs accessed via the Web.
Microsoft is trying to make Windows more like Google Inc's Android and Apple Inc's iOS, and by offering the software as a free upgrade for existing PCs, it's removing the impetus for many consumers to buy a new computer.
"It's hard to imagine people rushing out to buy new machines," said Steve Kleynhans, an analyst at Gartner Inc. "I just can't see anything about a new PC or a new operating system that will drive massive new sales."
The new operating system restores the Start Menu that Microsoft removed in Windows 8, replaces Internet Explorer with a new browser called Edge, builds in the Cortana voice-enabled personal assistant and replaces passwords for unlocking devices with face or fingerprint scans. Yet many of the new devices designed to take advantage of Windows 10 won't ship until closer to the holidays.
Even Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella said the new software wouldn't really gain steam until two quarters from now.
"My bullishness for Windows 10 is more in the second half of the fiscal year," he told analysts last week, referring to Microsoft's year that started July 1.
Instead of getting more demanding, Windows is becoming leaner, meaning that the processors, hard drives and other components aren't becoming obsolete as quickly as in the past, removing the need for consumers and businesses to upgrade their PCs to tap the power of the new software.
Underlining that change, since Windows 7 debuted in 2009, the system requirements — the hardware Microsoft recommends as the minimum to get the new software to perform adequately — haven't changed. Taking it even closer to mobile operating systems, Windows 10 will be free and downloadable for a year.
New features in Windows 10 such as Cortana will benefit from better microphones to help voice recognition, for example. Touchscreens will help users negotiate the large tile-based interface of Windows, and more advanced cameras and fingerprint readers will help with new automated security and login features.
"There are some cool new things that light up if you've got new hardware but this will run just fine on the traditional type of hardware," Gartner's Kleynhans said.
Some PC makers anticipate that Windows 10 will help ignite corporate demand that failed to materialise for its predecessor, Windows 8, which many companies skipped after deciding it was too consumer-focused.
"Business users are giving me positive feedback on Windows 10 and I didn't hear that on Windows 8," said Kirk Schell, general manager of Dell Inc's commercial client product line. "To the best of our estimates, there are 600 million systems out there that are four years old and people are waiting to refresh."
Microsoft said four manufacturers — Dell, Hewlett-Packard Co, Lenovo Group Ltd and Acer Inc — will have machines with Windows 10 pre-loaded available for sale on the first day.
In Microsoft's view, the new release will bolster the PC industry by drawing attention to Windows products versus computers, phones and tablets running operating systems from Apple and Google.
"The real competition for PCs is with the other ecosystems out there," said Yusuf Mehdi, Microsoft's marketing chief for Windows and devices. "This is bringing real energy to the Windows ecosystem and to the extent that we do that, it's good for the Windows PC market." bloomberg